je.st
news
Tag: julia
Summary for Tropical Storm JULIA (AT1/AL112016)
2016-09-15 04:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JULIA FORECAST TO MEANDER JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST... As of 11:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 the center of JULIA was located near 32.1, -79.8 with movement ENE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
julia
Tropical Storm JULIA Public Advisory Number 5
2016-09-15 04:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150234 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 ...JULIA FORECAST TO MEANDER JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.1N 79.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 79.8 West. Julia is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slow erratic motion is expected over the next couple of days. The forecast keeps Julia meandering just off the northern Georgia and southern South Carolina coastlines into Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible on Thursday, but gradual weakening should begin thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Winds to tropical storm force in a few brief squalls are possible along portions of the South Carolina coast tonight and Thursday. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts of up to 6 inches along the immediate coastline of South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. This rainfall could lead to flooding and flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-09-15 04:35:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150234 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 The low-level circulation has become a little bit elongated, and due to southwesterly shear most of the convection has shifted to the northeast of the center. A convective band is still wrapping around the eastern portion of the cyclone. Based on surface observations, WSR-88D Doppler velocity data, and satellite estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt. Since the cyclone is over water, some slight intensification is possible during the next day or so before the shear increases as forecast by global models. A gradual weakening should then begin in about 36 hours. Julia appears to be moving toward the east-northeast at about 4 kt. The steering currents are forecast to collapse, and most of the models keep a weakening cyclone meandering during the next few days. The NHC track forecast follows such a trend and predicts a very slow eastward drift during the next 48 hours. Little motion is anticipated thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 32.1N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 32.2N 79.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 32.2N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 32.1N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 32.0N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 32.0N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 32.0N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 32.0N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm JULIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2016-09-15 04:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 150234 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 0300 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 2(12) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) SURF CITY NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 3(13) 3(16) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 3(17) 3(20) BALD HEAD ISL 34 2 10(12) 5(17) 4(21) 5(26) 3(29) 2(31) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 5(14) 2(16) 3(19) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 3(13) LITTLE RIVER 34 4 11(15) 4(19) 3(22) 6(28) 3(31) 2(33) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 9 12(21) 4(25) 4(29) 5(34) 3(37) 2(39) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 30 12(42) 4(46) 1(47) 5(52) 2(54) 1(55) GEORGETOWN SC 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 4(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 8(14) 3(17) 5(22) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 3(14) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 2(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast Advisory Number 5
2016-09-15 04:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150233 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 0300 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 79.8W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 79.8W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 80.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 32.2N 79.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.2N 78.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 32.1N 78.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.0N 78.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 32.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 32.0N 79.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N 79.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] next »