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Tropical Storm JULIA Graphics
2016-09-14 19:37:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Sep 2016 17:37:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Sep 2016 15:09:09 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm JULIA (AT1/AL112016)
2016-09-14 19:36:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JULIA JUST OFFSHORE NEAR GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER... As of 2:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 the center of JULIA was located near 31.8, -80.8 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm JULIA Public Advisory Number 3A
2016-09-14 19:36:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 141736 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JULIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 200 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 ...JULIA JUST OFFSHORE NEAR GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 80.8W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 80.8 West. Julia is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and a slow and erratic motion is expected over the next couple of days. Julia is likely to meander near the northern Georgia or southern South Carolina coastlines through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible along portions of the coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina today. Fort Pulaski, Georgia, near Savannah, reported a wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h). RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along the immediate coastline of South Carolina from Georgetown southward, and 2 to 4 inches near Savannah, Georgia. Isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches are possible along the immediate coast of South Carolina. Julia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches elsewhere along the coast from far northeast Florida to far southern North Carolina. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially in Georgia and South Carolina. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible across southern South Carolina today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm JULIA Graphics
2016-09-14 16:57:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Sep 2016 14:57:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Sep 2016 14:46:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-09-14 16:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 141447 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 Julia is estimated to be maintaining 35-kt winds, based on WSR 88-D Doppler velocity data, well offshore of the coast. Since the system will continue to interact with land, weakening is forecast and the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest D-SHIPS and LGEM guidance. There is a possibility, however, that the system could strengthen if it moves far enough out over water. The center of Julia may be reforming closer to the Georgia coast, although the surface observations are not yet definitive, and the initial motion is a highly uncertain 030/5 kt. The tropical cyclone is likely to remain in weak steering currents near the axis of the subtropical ridge, and the track guidance models indicate that some erratic motion is likely over the next couple of days. The official forecast shows a very slow motion after 12 hours, and is east of the previous NHC track. The slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts near 10 inches along portions of the South Carolina coastline. These rains could result in flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 31.4N 81.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0000Z 32.0N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1200Z 32.2N 80.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0000Z 32.3N 80.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/1200Z 32.3N 80.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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