je.st
news
Tag: lorenzo
Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-28 22:41:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 20:41:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 21:24:40 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
lorenzo
hurricane graphics
Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 25
2019-09-28 22:40:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 282040 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a research mission has been invaluable in helping us to observe reintensification after Lorenzo's eyewall replacement. The plane measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 126 kt and SFMR surface winds as high as 112 kt. In addition, the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate is 114 kt. These data support increasing the initial intensity to 115 kt, which makes Lorenzo a category 4 hurricane again. The plane also reported a circular eye 34 n mi wide and a central pressure around 950 mb. Lorenzo is moving northward, or 355/9 kt, through a gap in the subtropical ridge. The western Atlantic ridge is becoming stronger than the eastern Atlantic ridge, and this should help to nudge Lorenzo north-northeastward between 24-48 hours. After that period, a deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic should turn Lorenzo northeastward, with the hurricane's forward motion accelerating as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The updated NHC track forecast has been placed near the HCCA model and the other consensus aids, which keeps it very close to the previous official forecast, at least through day 4. Some southward adjustment of the track was made at day 5 based on the latest global model guidance. Fluctuations in Lorenzo's intensity are possible over the next day or so. However, on the whole, moderate westerly shear and decreasing oceanic heat content ahead of the hurricane are expected to contribute to a very gradual weakening trend over the next 3 days. After day 3, Lorenzo is forecast to begin interacting with an approaching cold front from the northwest, which would start extratropical transition. The global models indicate that the transition should be complete soon after 96 hours, so for the moment the advisory continues to show tropical status on day 4. Faster weakening is expected during and after extratropical transition, and the updated NHC intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the previous forecast on days 4 and 5. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 23.3N 45.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2019-09-28 22:39:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 282039 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 86(86) X(86) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) X(53) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-28 22:39:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT LORENZO HAS RESTRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 28 the center of Lorenzo was located near 23.3, -45.0 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Tags: summary
hurricane
lorenzo
at3al132019
Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 25
2019-09-28 22:39:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 282039 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT LORENZO HAS RESTRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 45.0W ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 45.0 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Sunday, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast beginning Monday or Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will be approaching the Azores on Tuesday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next day or so. Lorenzo is expected to gradually weaken through Tuesday, but it will remain a large and potent hurricane while it approaches the Azores. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the plane is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Sites : [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] next »