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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-29 02:04:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 00:04:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 00:04:24 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-29 02:02:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING... As of 8:00 PM AST Sat Sep 28 the center of Lorenzo was located near 23.8, -45.0 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 942 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 26
2019-09-29 02:02:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 290002 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Special Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 ...LORENZO HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 45.0W ABOUT 1445 MI...2325 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 45.0 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Sunday, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast beginning Monday or Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will be approaching the Azores on Tuesday. Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and early Sunday. Lorenzo is expected to gradually weaken Sunday night through Tuesday, but it will remain a large and potent hurricane while it approaches the Azores. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2019-09-29 02:02:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0000 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 290002 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0000 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 AT 0000Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 85(85) 1(86) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 52(52) X(52) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 26
2019-09-29 02:00:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0000 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 290000 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0000 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 45.0W AT 29/0000Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB EYE DIAMETER 35 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......240NE 200SE 110SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 300SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 45.0W AT 29/0000Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...210NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 55SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 45.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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