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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2019-09-29 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 290234 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 77(90) X(90) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 63(64) X(64) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) X(35) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 27
2019-09-29 04:34:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 290234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 ...LARGE AND POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 LORENZO BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE THIS FAR NORTH AND EAST IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 44.9W ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 44.9 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the north-northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the northeast by Monday. A faster northeast motion is expected by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible through Sunday. A weakening trend is forecast to begin Sunday night. However, Lorenzo is expected to be a large and potent hurricane as is approaches the Azores in a few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 27
2019-09-29 04:34:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 290234 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 44.9W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......240NE 200SE 110SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 330SE 390SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 44.9W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.5N 44.7W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...210NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.1N 44.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 55SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 30.8N 42.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 36.7N 35.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 45.0N 23.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 52.2N 10.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 44.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-29 04:07:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARGE AND POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 LORENZO BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE THIS FAR NORTH AND EAST IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 28 the center of Lorenzo was located near 24.2, -44.9 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 925 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 26
2019-09-29 02:06:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 290006 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Special Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 The satellite presentation of Lorenzo has improved throughout this evening, and the ring of cloud tops surrounding the eye have become wider and colder. This has resulted in both subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates increasing to a 6.5 on the Dvorak scale, indicative of a 125 kt hurricane. Based on this data, a special advisory is being issued at this time to increase the initial intensity, and the 12-hour and 24-hour forecast wind speeds. No other changes were required to the previous track or intensity forecast. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0000Z 23.8N 45.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto
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