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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-09-23 22:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 232033 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Lorenzo is steadily getting better organized. Visible imagery before sunset showed that the tropical storm has developed extensive banding that wraps about 3/4 of the way around the circulation. An 1836 SSMIS overpass also shows this banding, but indicated that the tropical storm has not developed a tight inner core. Satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 47 kt, and the intensity of the system has been increased to 40 kt. All indications are that Lorenzo is in a favorable environment for strengthening, and all of the guidance continues to forecast that it will become a hurricane during the next few days, perhaps as soon as tomorrow. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 45 percent chance of a 25 kt or greater increase in Lorenzo's winds during the next 24 hours. Since the tropical storm doesn't have a tight inner-core yet, the NHC forecast isn't quite as bullish, but still shows steady strengthening, and Lorenzo could become a major hurricane later this week. The tropical storm is moving steadily westward with an initial motion of 275/14. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous one, and no substantial changes were made. Lorenzo will likely move generally westward to west-northwestward at a similar forward speed for the next few days, before turning northwestward over the weekend. The global models are in very good agreement on this scenario, but do differ on how soon Lorenzo will turn northwestward. The NHC forecast is based primarily on HCCA, and is on the left side of the guidance envelope. This is also closer to the ECMWF and UKMET forecasts which delay the start of Lorenzo's recurvature a little more than the GFS and its derived models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 11.3N 25.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 11.7N 27.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 12.4N 30.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 13.1N 33.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 13.6N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 15.4N 40.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 18.3N 43.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 21.5N 46.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-23 22:33:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO STRENGTHENING WELL SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 23 the center of Lorenzo was located near 11.3, -25.5 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 4
2019-09-23 22:33:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 232033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...LORENZO STRENGTHENING WELL SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.3N 25.5W ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 25.5 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is anticipated for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical storm will pass well to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-09-23 22:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 232033 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 25.5W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 25.5W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 24.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.7N 27.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 12.4N 30.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 13.1N 33.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.6N 35.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.4N 40.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 70SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 18.3N 43.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 21.5N 46.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 25.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-23 17:03:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 23 the center of Lorenzo was located near 11.1, -24.1 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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