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Tropical Depression MANUEL Public Advisory Number 13

2013-09-17 22:38:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 172038 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN SUMMARY SECTION ...MANUEL REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 107.4W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVERISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND NAYARIT. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 13

2013-09-17 22:37:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 172037 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN SUMMARY SECTION CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVERISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 107.4W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 107.4W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.0N 107.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.1N 109.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.5N 110.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 107.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 13

2013-09-17 22:32:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 172032 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH MORE PRONOUNCED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND BASED ON THESE DATA ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED ON MANUEL. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ASCAT DATA AND A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS OF 25 KT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER EARLIER TODAY. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. AFTER 48 HOURS...INTERACTION WITH THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE INGESTION OF STABLE AIR FROM WEST OF THE PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO TURN WESTWARD AFTER IT WEAKENS. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 22.6N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 23.0N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 23.5N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 24.1N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 24.5N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2013-09-17 22:32:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 172032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 6 9 11 17 41 NA TROP DEPRESSION 35 34 29 24 23 41 NA TROPICAL STORM 64 58 55 55 51 18 NA HURRICANE X 2 7 10 8 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 7 9 8 X NA HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 1 X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 30KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 8( 9) 9(18) 4(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 12(14) 10(24) 4(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 1 6( 7) 15(22) 9(31) 5(36) X(36) X(36) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 10(21) 2(23) X(23) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 7(20) 6(26) 1(27) X(27) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 1 13(14) 16(30) 7(37) 5(42) 1(43) X(43) CULIACAN 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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