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Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 10
2013-09-15 23:53:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 152153 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 10...RESENT NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 PRODUCT RESENT DUE TO TRANSMISSION ERROR ...MANUEL WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL NEAR MANZANILLO... ...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 104.3W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM N OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHANTANEJO TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA...JALISCO AND NAYARIT. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF MANUEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-15 23:12:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2013 20:46:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2013 21:05:24 GMT
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-09-15 22:44:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152044 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 AMBIGUITIES FROM A 1618 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF MANUEL MADE LANDFALL NEAR MANZANILLO EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE PASS ALSO INDICATED THAT WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE ARE NO HIGHER THAN 35 KT. FURTHERMORE...CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE THAT TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS CONSERVATIVELY BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT...SINCE STRONGER WINDS MAY STILL BE PRESENT IN BANDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR. IN FACT...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF MANUEL WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/08. MANUEL CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE WHILE THE CIRCULATION REMAINS INTACT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BEYOND 24 HOURS AND SOME MODELS...NOTABLY THE HWRF...GFDL...AND ECMWF...SHOW A TRACK TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS BEING DISCOUNTED FOR NOW SINCE THE VORTEX TRACKER APPLIED TO THESE MODELS SEEMS TO FOLLOW ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHILE MANUEL DISSIPATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 19.2N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 20.3N 105.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/1800Z 21.4N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2013-09-15 22:43:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 152042 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 9 32 NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 75 54 NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 16 15 NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 2 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 41 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) MANZANILLO 34 70 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-15 22:42:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL NEAR MANZANILLO... ...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES CONTINUES... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of MANUEL was located near 19.2, -104.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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