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Tropical Storm MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-15 17:11:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2013 14:51:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2013 15:05:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-09-15 16:51:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151450 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION REMAINS IMPRESSIVE. A MOSTLY CIRCULAR DENSE OVERCAST SURROUNDS THE CENTER...WITH A LONG CURVED BAND EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... AN EARLIER SSM/I PASS SHOWED A LESS ORGANIZED INNER CORE STRUCTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS... AND A LITTLE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AT 1200 UTC WAS 4.0...WITH THE LATEST ADT VALUE OF 3.7. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT...GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL FEATURES AND RECENT CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP WARMING IN THE INNER CORE. SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE MOTION OF MANUEL IS A BIT TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...WITH A LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 320/08...WHICH HAS DELAYED LANDFALL. MANUEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SOMETIME LATER TODAY. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWESTERLY INITIAL MOTION BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. WITH THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD FOLLOW WHEN THE CIRCULATION IS DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. ANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT COULD DELAY THE TIME OF LANDFALL FURTHER AND COULD LEAD TO TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. AS A CONSEQUENCE...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 18.5N 103.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 19.5N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/1200Z 20.3N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0000Z 21.2N 106.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2013-09-15 16:49:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 151449 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 10 42 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 3 30 42 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 84 45 15 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE 13 15 X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 13 14 X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 30KT 20KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 2 22(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAN BLAS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 25 26(51) 3(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) P VALLARTA 50 1 13(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) P VALLARTA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 86 2(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 31 5(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) MANZANILLO 50 47 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) MANZANILLO 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 21(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-15 16:49:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...RISK OF FLASH-FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES CONTINUES... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of MANUEL was located near 18.5, -103.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 9
2013-09-15 16:49:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 151449 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 ...MANUEL MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...RISK OF FLASH-FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 103.9W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM WNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR AND PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...LIKELY MAKING LANDFALL LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES ONSHORE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA...JALISCO AND NAYARIT. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER OF MANUEL REACHES THE COAST. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
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