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Hurricane DOLORES Graphics

2015-07-15 04:36:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 15 Jul 2015 02:35:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 Jul 2015 02:35:50 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)

2015-07-15 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DOLORES STRENGTHENING... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 the center of DOLORES was located near 18.2, -109.2 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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Hurricane DOLORES Public Advisory Number 15

2015-07-15 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 150233 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 ...DOLORES STRENGTHENING... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 109.2W ABOUT 330 MI...525 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dolores was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 109.2 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Dolores should pass near Socorro Island on Wednesday. Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Dolores is expected to become a major hurricane on Wednesday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to begin affecting the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2015-07-15 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 150233 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0300 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 3( 5) 6(11) 5(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 2( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 75 20(95) 2(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ISLA SOCORRO 50 14 55(69) 6(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) ISLA SOCORRO 64 3 38(41) 6(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) ISLA CLARION 34 2 2( 4) 8(12) 14(26) 11(37) 2(39) X(39) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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