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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-07-14 22:47:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 142047 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 Dolores is developing a cloud-filled 20 n mi wide eye in visible imagery, with the coldest cloud tops in the eyewall colder than -80C. The initial intensity remains 75 kt based on AMSU estimates and a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. While the hurricane has good cirrus outflow, water vapor imagery and earlier microwave imagery suggest that mid-level dry air is entraining into the southwestern semicircle, possibly to near the eyewall. The initial motion is now 295/6. The hurricane is currently being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The dynamical models suggest the ridge should strengthen during the next 48-72 hours, which should cause Dolores to move a bit faster toward the west-northwest. After that time, the ridge should weaken as a trough moves southward along the coast of California. This evolution should allow Dolores to turn northwestward by 120 hours. There is some spread in the model guidance during the 72-120 hour period, with the Canadian, GFDL, UKMET, and several of the consensus models showing a more northward motion than the GFS and ECMWF. This part of the new forecast track will lean toward the GFS/ECMWF solutions and thus lies to the left of the model consensus. Dolores should continue to intensify through the next 36 hours or so in an environment of warm water and light vertical wind shear. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index still shows a 30 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. However, the dry air entraining into the cyclone makes it unclear whether rapid intensification will occur. The new intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening to a major hurricane in 36 hours, and it is possible this part of the forecast is conservative. After 36-48 hours, Dolores is expected to encounter decreasing sea surface temperatures, which should cause steady or rapid weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 18.0N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 18.4N 109.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 19.0N 110.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 19.6N 111.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 20.3N 112.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 23.5N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 27.0N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2015-07-14 22:47:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 142047 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 2100 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 3( 5) 6(11) 7(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 38 47(85) 7(92) 1(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) ISLA SOCORRO 50 2 41(43) 19(62) 3(65) X(65) 1(66) X(66) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 19(19) 15(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 12(21) 12(33) 2(35) 1(36) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-14 22:47:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 the center of DOLORES was located near 18.0, -108.6 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane DOLORES Public Advisory Number 14
2015-07-14 22:47:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 142046 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 ...DOLORES GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 108.6W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dolores was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 108.6 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Dolores should pass near Socorro Island Wednesday or Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Satellite imagery indicates that Dolores is developing an eye, and it is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane Wednesday or Wednesday night. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to begin affecting the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula today. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 14
2015-07-14 22:46:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 142046 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 2100 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 108.6W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 108.6W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 108.3W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.4N 109.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.0N 110.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.6N 111.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.3N 112.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 27.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 108.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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