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Hurricane DOLORES Graphics
2015-07-14 16:56:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 14 Jul 2015 14:56:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 14 Jul 2015 14:53:49 GMT
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-07-14 16:54:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 141453 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 Dolores has continued to become better organized during the past several hours. Microwave imagery indicates that a mid-level eye has formed, and first-light visible images are showing a hint of eye development as well. The initial intensity is increased to 75 kt based on a combination of subjective Dvorak Technique and AMSU intensity estimates. After its earlier westward turn, Dolores has resumed a west-northwestward motion of 290/6. The hurricane is currently being steered by a low- to mid-level level ridge over northern Mexico. The dynamical models suggest the ridge should strengthen during the next 48 hours of so, which should cause the storm to move a bit faster toward the west-northwest. After 96 hours, the ridge should weaken as a trough moves southward along the coast of California. This evolution should allow Dolores to turn northwestward by 120 hours. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little faster than, the previous forecast. It lies near the center of the guidance envelope through 96 hours and a little left of the center of the envelope at 120 hours. Dolores should continue to intensify through the next 36-48 hours in an environment of warm water and light vertical wind shear, with the biggest question being how strong will it get. The official intensity forecast during this time follows the SHIPS model, which is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. However, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 30 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours, so the current intensity forecast could be conservative. Regardless of the actual peak intensity, the cyclone should start a steady weakening trend after 48 hours as it encounters cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 17.7N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 18.0N 108.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.5N 109.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 19.0N 110.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 19.7N 111.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 21.0N 114.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 22.5N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 25.5N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2015-07-14 16:54:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 141453 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1500 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 8(15) 7(22) 1(23) X(23) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 7(18) 1(19) X(19) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 16 49(65) 20(85) 5(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 17(18) 30(48) 10(58) 3(61) X(61) X(61) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 5( 5) 16(21) 11(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 20(34) 3(37) X(37) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 1(11) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-14 16:54:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 the center of DOLORES was located near 17.7, -108.2 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane DOLORES Public Advisory Number 13
2015-07-14 16:54:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 141452 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 ...DOLORES INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 108.2W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dolores was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 108.2 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Dolores should pass near Socorro Island Wednesday or Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolores is expected to become a major hurricane Wednesday or Wednesday night. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of up to an inch are possible along the southwestern coast of Mexico in the states of Colima and Jalisco today. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to begin affecting the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula today. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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