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Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)

2016-07-18 22:35:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ESTELLE REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 18 the center of ESTELLE was located near 17.8, -115.8 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Public Advisory Number 14

2016-07-18 22:35:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 182035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 ...ESTELLE REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 115.8W ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 115.8 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so, and Estelle is still forecast to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2016-07-18 22:35:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 18 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 182035 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 2100 UTC MON JUL 18 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Advisory Number 14

2016-07-18 22:35:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 182035 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 2100 UTC MON JUL 18 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 115.8W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 115.8W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 115.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.3N 117.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.8N 119.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.2N 121.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.7N 123.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.2N 129.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 24.0N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.0N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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