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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Advisory Number 19
2014-08-05 04:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 050239 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISELLE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 138.0W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 138.0W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 137.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.1N 139.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.5N 141.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.2N 144.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.9N 147.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.5N 154.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 21.0N 160.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.0N 165.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 138.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane Iselle could reach Big Island on Thursday
2014-08-05 01:40:21| Airlines - Topix.net
Hurricane Iselle continues to pack maximum sustained winds of 140 mph as the Category 4 storm churns less than 1,200 miles east-southeast of the Big Island.
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Hurricane ISELLE Graphics
2014-08-04 23:22:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 20:34:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 21:09:17 GMT
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Hurricane ISELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2014-08-04 23:05:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 042105 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 27(43) 1(44) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) X(36) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 32(40) X(40) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 2(34) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) KAHULUI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 2(35) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 3(32) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) KAUNAKAKAI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 3(28) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) HONOLULU 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 6(23) LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 18
2014-08-04 22:42:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 042042 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 Corrected quasi-annual to quasi-annular Iselle has an impressive signature on visible satellite imagery with a solid central dense overcast surrounding a 25 n mi wide eye. Final-T estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT have fallen slightly, but the CI number remains 6.3/122 kt. Along with steady T6.0/115 kt estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is held at 120 kt. There is not much change to the intensity forecast. Due to its quasi-annual structure, Iselle should only gradually weaken in the short term while it moves over marginal sea surface temperatures and in a relatively light-shear environment. For that reason, the NHC intensity forecast remains above the intensity guidance for the first 24 hours. Faster weakening is expected thereafter while the cyclone spends about 24 hours over sub-26C water. However, the ocean warms again just to the east of Hawaii, which could allow Iselle to maintain some intensity. After 24 hours, the NHC intensity forecast more closely follows the intensity consensus ICON and the statistical LGEM, which tends to do a good job at the end of the forecast period. Iselle has been moving due westward, or possibly even wobbled just south of due west, during the past few hours. The initial motion estimate is 270/9 kt, but Iselle's forward speed should begin to decrease soon since the ridge to its north has weakened. A mid-level anticyclone is expected to develop and strengthen between California and Hawaii in a day or two, forcing Iselle to turn west-northwestward and accelerate starting in 36 hours. The track guidance has change very little on this cycle, and the updated NHC forecast continues to bring the center of Iselle across the main Hawaiian Islands between 72 and 120 hours. Based on this forecast, Iselle should be crossing 140W just before 1800 UTC on Tuesday. If this forecast holds, then the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, would assume responsibility for Iselle and begin issuing advisories at 2100 UTC, or 11 AM HST on Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 16.1N 137.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 16.2N 138.5W 115 KT 135 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 16.5N 140.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 17.1N 142.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 17.8N 146.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 19.5N 153.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR HAWAII 96H 08/1800Z 21.0N 159.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR HAWAII 120H 09/1800Z 22.5N 164.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...WEST OF HAWAII $$ Forecaster Berg
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