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Summary for Hurricane ISELLE (EP4/EP092014)
2014-08-04 22:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE MOVING WESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 4 the center of ISELLE was located near 16.1, -137.4 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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Hurricane ISELLE Graphics
2014-08-04 16:39:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 14:39:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 14:36:44 GMT
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 17
2014-08-04 16:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 041436 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 800 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 Iselle continues to intensify and has reached category 4 strength. Convective cloud tops as cold as -75C surround the eye, which has grown to a diameter of 25-30 n mi. Dvorak estimates were a consensus T6.0/115 kt from TAFB and SAB at 1200 UTC, and the objective UW-CIMSS ADT has crept up to T6.3/122 kt since that time. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 120 kt. Vertical shear is expected to remain light for the next 24 hours or so while Iselle moves over gradually cooler SSTs. Since Iselle has some characteristics of an annular hurricane, it is likely to change little in intensity during the next day or so, and even when it begins to weaken, the trend should be gradual. On day 3, Iselle will be moving over the coldest water (between 25 and 26C) along its forecast track, and vertical shear is expected to increase to about 15-20 kt. Both factors should induce quicker weakening at that time. The NHC intensity forecast remains above all of the typically used intensity models during the first 24 hours, is very close to the consensus on days 2-3, and then more closely follows the decay shown by the LGEM model toward the latter part of the forecast period. Iselle's initial motion is 275/9 kt. A mid- to upper-level shortwave trough is swinging by to the north of the hurricane and eroding the subtropical ridge, which should cause Iselle to slow down a bit during the next 24 hours. After that time, a mid-level high is forecast to develop and strengthen between Hawaii and California, forcing Iselle to turn west-northwestward and accelerate as it approaches and moves near the Hawaiian Islands. The track guidance has been stable and tightly clustered for a few cycles now, and no significant changes were required to the NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 16.2N 136.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 16.2N 137.7W 115 KT 135 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 16.3N 139.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 16.8N 141.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 17.4N 144.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 19.0N 150.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...EAST OF HAWAII 96H 08/1200Z 21.0N 157.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR HAWAII 120H 09/1200Z 22.5N 162.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...WEST OF HAWAII $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane ISELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2014-08-04 16:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 041436 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 5(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 12(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 1(31) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 2(24) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 3(28) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 4(26) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) KAHULUI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 3(24) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane ISELLE (EP4/EP092014)
2014-08-04 16:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE REACHES CATEGORY 4 STATUS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 4 the center of ISELLE was located near 16.2, -136.5 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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