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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 19
2014-11-03 21:43:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 032043 TCMEP1 HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 2100 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.8W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.8W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.8N 110.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 109.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.4N 108.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.4N 108.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.0N 108.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 110.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane VANCE Graphics
2014-11-03 16:09:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Nov 2014 14:55:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Nov 2014 15:05:08 GMT
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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 18
2014-11-03 15:54:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 031454 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014 Recent microwave images show that the inner core of Vance remains vertically aligned, however, the outflow is becoming increasingly restricted over the southwestern portion of the circulation due to southwesterly shear. Vance has likely peaked in intensity and the initial wind speed is held at 90 kt for this advisory, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak CI-numbers from both TAFB and SAB. The vertical shear over Vance is forecast to dramatically increase during the next 24 to 48 hours. In fact, the SHIPS model predicts shear to increase to 37 kt in 24 hours, and to 54 kt in 48 hours. These very hostile conditions should cause the hurricane to rapidly weaken during the next couple of days, and Vance is forecast to become a tropical depression in 48 hours. Although a 72-hour forecast as a remnant low is indicated, it is highly possible that this system will have dissipated by that time. The initial motion estimate is north-northwest or 345/10 kt. Vance has started its much anticipated northward turn ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. Vance should turn northward this afternoon, and then recurve north-northeastward ahead of the trough tomorrow. There continues to be some run-to-run inconsistencies in the model guidance as to how vertically coherent Vance will remain and how fast it will move north-northeastward. The GFS and ECMWF now bring a weakening cyclone to the coast, meanwhile the HWRF and UKMET show a much slower, and more erratic motion in a couple of days. The updated NHC track has trended faster than the previous advisory and is close to the multi-model consensus, however, the new forecast is slower than the GFS and ECMWF models. Moisture from Vance and its remnants are likely to spread northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United States during the next several days. This is likely to produce heavy rains over portions of these areas through Thursday or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 15.3N 110.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 16.7N 110.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 18.6N 110.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 20.6N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 22.5N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 24.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2014-11-03 15:53:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 031453 PWSEP1 HURRICANE VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 1500 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 5 76(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 14(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-03 15:53:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE HOLDING ITS STRENGTH...BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING VERY SOON.... As of 7:00 AM PST Mon Nov 3 the center of VANCE was located near 15.3, -110.6 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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