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Hurricane VANCE Graphics
2014-11-03 22:10:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Nov 2014 20:45:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Nov 2014 21:05:15 GMT
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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-11-03 21:44:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 032044 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014 Earlier today it appeared that Vance was beginning to weaken. However, that trend has ended and recent satellite images suggest that the hurricane is a little better organized. The eye is again evident in satellite images and the inner core of the cyclone is well intact. The initial intensity is nudged upward to 95 kt, using a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane is now moving northward at about 10 kt located on the western side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Water vapor images show a high amplitude trough digging to the west of Vance. This feature is expected to steer the system north-northeastward during the next couple of days, bringing a much weaker cyclone near the southwestern coast of Mexico in 2 to 3 days. Even though Vance has strengthened some this afternoon, steady or even rapid weakening is still anticipated due to a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and drier air. In fact, the SHIPS model shows extremely hostile shear conditions with values near 30 kt tonight and more than 40 kt tomorrow. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and lies very close to the model consensus. The current forecast calls for Vance to become a tropical depression offshore. However, if Vance does not begin to weaken soon, then the chances of tropical storm conditions reaching the coast will increase. Moisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United States during the next several days. This is likely to produce heavy rains over portions of these areas through Thursday or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 16.4N 110.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 17.8N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.6N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 21.4N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 23.4N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 25.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2014-11-03 21:43:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 032043 PWSEP1 HURRICANE VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 2100 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 6(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 70 17(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ISLA SOCORRO 50 3 15(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-03 21:43:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE NOT WEAKENING YET.... As of 1:00 PM PST Mon Nov 3 the center of VANCE was located near 16.4, -110.8 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane VANCE Public Advisory Number 19
2014-11-03 21:43:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 032043 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014 ...VANCE NOT WEAKENING YET.... SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 110.8W ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT...AND STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE STATES OF SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 PM PST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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