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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 20
2014-11-04 03:54:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040254 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014 Corrected text to read tropical storm watch issued Vance has maintained a well-defined central dense overcast pattern since the previous advisory, although the eye has become less distinct in infrared and recent SSMI/S microwave imagery. However, cloud tops colder than -80C now completely encircle the remnant eye feature in infrared imagery. An average of Dvorak current intensity estimates yields a value of 96 kt, so the initial intensity is being maintained at 95 kt. Vance has started to recurve to the north-northeast and the initial motion estimate is now 020/11 kt. The hurricane is expected to move in a general north-northeastward to northeastward direction within south-southwesterly steering flow between the subtropical ridge to the east and an approaching deep-layer trough to the west. As a result, Vance is expected to pass just east of Socorro Island tonight and be near the southwestern coast of Mexico in 48 hours or so. The NHC model guidance is in decent agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track and lies close to the blend of the GFS and ECMWF model solutions. The latest SHIPS guidance indicates south-southwesterly vertical wind shear of at least 30 affecting Vance. Although this estimate could be a little overdone given the impressive infrared satellite signature, a 0134 UTC SSMI/S microwave overpass suggests that the circulation is starting to tilt downstream to the northeast due to the shear. The vertical shear is forecast by all of the global models to steadily increase throughout the forecast period, which should result in steady or rapid weakening until landfall occurs in about 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models, which is just slightly above the consensus model ICON. The forecast still calls for Vance to become a tropical depression just offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. However, due to the uncertainty in the exact timing of the expected weakening trend, the Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for portions of southwestern mainland Mexico. Moisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United States during the next several days. This is likely to produce heavy rains over portions of these areas through Thursday or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 17.4N 110.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 18.8N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.5N 109.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 22.7N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 24.6N 107.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 25.5N 108.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-04 03:41:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE STILL A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM PST Mon Nov 3 the center of VANCE was located near 17.4, -110.6 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane VANCE Public Advisory Number 20
2014-11-04 03:41:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 040241 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014 ...VANCE STILL A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 110.6W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...VANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE STATES OF SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1000 PM PST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 AM PST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2014-11-04 03:41:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 040241 PWSEP1 HURRICANE VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0300 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 6( 7) 16(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 5( 6) 18(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) CULIACAN 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) MAZATLAN 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 4(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) ISLA SOCORRO 50 17 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ISLA SOCORRO 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 7( 8) 9(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 20
2014-11-04 03:41:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 040241 TCMEP1 HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0300 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014 WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.6W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.6W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 110.8W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.8N 110.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 109.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.7N 108.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.6N 107.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.5N 108.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 110.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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