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Hurricane MARIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2014-08-25 22:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 252034 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 16
2014-08-25 22:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 252033 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.8W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT.......110NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......240NE 270SE 160SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 420SE 330SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.8W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 115.3W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.4N 117.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 160SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.6N 119.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.7N 121.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.7N 124.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 29.0N 132.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 31.0N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane MARIE Graphics
2014-08-25 16:36:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 14:36:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 14:33:44 GMT
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 15
2014-08-25 16:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251434 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 The area of the coldest cloud tops surrounding Marie's eye has been gradually shrinking in size while the eye has started to cool. However, Marie is still a powerful hurricane, and a blend of CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT support maintaining an intensity of 125 kt for this advisory. A 1207 UTC SSMI/S pass indicated that Marie still has a concentric eyewall structure, so an eyewall replacement has not yet occurred. Upper-level outflow has become a little restricted on the northwest side of the hurricane, but vertical shear is expected to remain light for much of the forecast period. Internal dynamics, especially the continued potential of an eyewall replacement, will likely influence Marie's intensity during the next 24 hours. After that time, quick weakening is expected since Marie will be moving over sub-26C waters. The intensity models are in good agreement in Marie's rate of weakening during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast is therefore very close to the intensity consensus. Marie has turned northwestward with an initial motion of 305/11 kt. Mid-level ridging to the north and northeast of the hurricane is expected to steer Marie on a northwestward or west-northwestward heading through day 4. The depiction of a developing mid-level high along the California/northwest Mexico coast in 3 days has been a little stronger in recent model runs, and as a result, the track guidance for Marie has shifted westward. The updated NHC track forecast is close to a clustering of the GFS, ECMWF, and TVCE beyond 48 hours. Although Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 17.9N 114.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W 115 KT 135 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 20.1N 118.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 21.2N 120.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 22.2N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 24.5N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 28.0N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 30/1200Z 30.5N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-25 16:34:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EYE OF MARIE VERY NEAR CLARION ISLAND... ...LARGE SWELLS MOVING UP THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 25 the center of MARIE was located near 17.9, -114.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 932 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
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