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Simon strengthens into Category 4 hurricane in Pacific off Baja peninsula; no threats to land
2014-10-05 05:34:30| Railroads - Topix.net
Officials say an ill passenger prompted medical crews to meet an overseas flight that landed at Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey. Federal health officials say Ebola has been ruled out as the cause of illness for a man who had traveled in West Africa and became sick on a flight from Brussels to the U.S. A man at New York City's Kennedy Airport is being questioned by authorities after he passed through security without being screened.
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Hurricane SIMON Graphics
2014-10-05 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Oct 2014 02:34:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Oct 2014 02:32:44 GMT
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Hurricane SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-10-05 04:33:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050232 TCDEP4 HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 After the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft left Simon earlier today, satellite images revealed that the eye became quite distinct and surrounded by very deep convection. Dvorak subjective and objective numbers from TAFB, SAB and UW-CIMSS jumped to T6.0 on the Dvorak scale. Based on this data, the initial intensity was adjusted upward to 115 kt. This makes Simon the 6th Category Four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale this season. Simon reached 115 kt just before entering a region of cool waters, and as we speak, a portion of the circulation is already doing so. Most of the global models increase the shear as the cyclone moves northward toward the mid-latitude westerlies. Based on these two factors, the NHC forecast calls for significant weakening during the next few days. In fact, if Simon reaches Baja California, it is likely to be a weak tropical storm or a tropical depression. Simon is already turning and is now moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 9 kt. The ridge that has been steering Simon is forecast to weaken and shift southward. This pattern will move Simon northward until the cyclone encounters the mid-latitude westerlies, and a recurvature toward Baja California will then begin in 48 hours. One large uncertainty is how fast Simon will move after recurvature. The GFS and the ECMWF are now in better agreement in accelerating the cyclone, but many of the other models are not quite so fast. The NHC forecast is not as fast as the GFS/ECMWF pair at this time, but I would not be surprised if a faster motion has to be indicated in the next forecast. The trend of models suggests that moisture from Simon could bring another heavy rain event to the southwestern United States in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 21.4N 115.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 22.4N 117.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 23.5N 117.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 24.4N 117.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 25.2N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 27.0N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 30.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Hurricane SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-05 04:32:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...AND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ...THE 6TH OF THE SEASON... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Oct 4 the center of SIMON was located near 21.4, -115.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 946 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 14
2014-10-05 04:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 05 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 050231 TCMEP4 HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0300 UTC SUN OCT 05 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 115.9W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 115.9W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.4N 117.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.5N 117.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.4N 117.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.2N 117.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.0N 116.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 115.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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