je.st
news
Tag: simon
Hurricane SIMON Graphics
2014-10-04 23:10:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 04 Oct 2014 20:48:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 04 Oct 2014 21:05:45 GMT
Tags: graphics
simon
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-10-04 22:47:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 042046 TCDEP4 HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft, carrying meteorologists from the Meteorological Service of Mexico, reports that Simon has become a major hurricane. The aircraft measured 700 mb flight-level winds of 114 kt, and the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer estimated surface winds of 104 kt. The minimum reported pressure was 950 mb inside a 7 n mi wide eye. Based on this information, the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt. The initial motion is 295/12. Simon is expected to move generally northwestward for the next 24-36 hours or so as is approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge to its north. After that, the system is expected to turn northward and northeastward. There have been some changes in the track guidance since the last advisory. The ECMWF and Canadian models have shifted to the right and show a faster northward motion, with the ECMWF now calling for landfall on the Baja California peninsula in about four days. The GFS, NAVGEM, and the GFDL continue show Simon moving quickly to the northeast, with the GFS forecasting landfall on the Baja California peninsula in about three days. The new forecast track has not changed much in direction since the last advisory, but it has a faster forward speed. That being said, the new forecast is still slower than the consensus models, and additional adjustments to the speed could be required on later advisories. A combination of microwave imagery and aircraft data suggest that Simon is about to start an eyewall replacement cycle. Some additional strengthening could occur in the next few hours before the eyewall replacement and decreasing sea surface temperatures end intensification. A weakening trend should begin after 12 hours due to the cooler water, and this trend should accelerate after 36 hours as the cyclone encounters increasing shear and a very dry air mass. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in making Simon a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. An alternative scenario is that Simon could make landfall in Mexico as a weakening tropical cyclone if it moves as fast as the GFS is forecasting. Simon is the eighth major hurricane of the 2014 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane season. This ties the record for major hurricanes set in 1983, 1992, and 1993. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 20.6N 115.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 21.5N 116.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 22.7N 117.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 23.5N 117.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 24.1N 117.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 25.5N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 26.5N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 27.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
simon
forecast
Hurricane SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2014-10-04 22:46:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 042046 PWSEP4 HURRICANE SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 2100 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 4(15) 1(16) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane SIMON Public Advisory Number 13
2014-10-04 22:46:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 042045 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 ...SIMON SAYS IT IS A MAJOR HURRICANE TO A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 115.0W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED BY MONDAY. REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SIMON IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME...WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY. SIMON REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 950 MB...28.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
public
simon
advisory
Hurricane SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 13
2014-10-04 22:45:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 042045 TCMEP4 HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 2100 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 115.0W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 115.0W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 116.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.7N 117.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.5N 117.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.1N 117.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
simon
advisory
forecast
Sites : [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] next »