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Tropical Storm FRED Graphics
2015-09-03 22:51:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2015 20:33:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2015 20:50:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 20
2015-09-03 22:33:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 032033 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015 Despite the 35-kt westerly wind shear impinging on Fred, deep convection, once again, regenerated near or over the center of the vigorous low-level circulation this afternoon. Given the lack of scatterometer data today, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt based on the blend of Dvorak estimates. It will be very difficult for Fred to survive the very strong westerly wind shear which is forecast to continue affecting the cyclone for the next couple of days and the NHC forecast calls for Fred to become a remnant low in about 24 hours. By the end of the forecast period, if Fred has not completely dissipated, the shear could be lighter. This combined with the presence of anomalously warm waters in the North Atlantic, could provide a very small opportunity for Fred to redevelop. The 1200 UTC global models, however, show a less favorable environment for Fred to redevelop than in earlier runs, and perhaps the regeneration will not materialize. A weak to moderate ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic continues to steer Fred toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 10 kt. In a couple of days, Fred or its remnants will be located on the southwestern edge of the ridge, and will begin to move toward the northwest and north. After 3 days, the system will recurve toward the northeast in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast continues to be very close to the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 22.0N 35.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 22.4N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 22.7N 38.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 23.0N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 23.5N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 26.0N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z 29.0N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z 31.0N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2015-09-03 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 032032 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-09-03 22:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TENACIOUS FRED STILL A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 3 the center of FRED was located near 22.0, -35.4 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 20
2015-09-03 22:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 032032 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015 ...TENACIOUS FRED STILL A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 35.4W ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 35.4 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next 2 days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Fred is forecast to become a remnant low by Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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