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Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)

2019-09-25 04:37:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 24 the center of Karen was located near 19.1, -65.0 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 12

2019-09-25 04:37:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 250237 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 65.0W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 20SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 65.0W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 65.1W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.8N 64.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.2N 64.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.5N 63.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.0N 62.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.8N 61.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 26.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 26.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 65.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2019-09-25 04:37:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 250237 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 1(16) SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) SABA 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 12

2019-09-25 04:37:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250237 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 65.0W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF ST. THOMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was estimated near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 65.0 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). Karen should continue to move toward the north-northeast through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours, but the strong squalls which are to the south of the center will continue to affect that area through tonight. Karen should move over the western Atlantic later tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure was 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico, Vieques and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are currently spreading across the warning area. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. This winds should gradually decrease on Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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