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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 19
2016-09-19 04:37:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 190237 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2016 ...KARL NOT STRENGTHENING YET... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 46.3W ABOUT 1025 MI...1645 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 46.3 West. Karl is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected by late Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Karl is forecast to begin strengthening on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 19
2016-09-19 04:37:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190237 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0300 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 46.3W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 30SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 46.3W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 45.6W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 48.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.1N 50.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.8N 53.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.7N 55.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.1N 60.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 26.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 28.8N 66.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 46.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-18 23:13:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Sep 2016 20:56:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Sep 2016 21:07:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 18
2016-09-18 22:59:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 182059 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2016 Deep convection has gradually been increasing and becoming a little better organized since the previous advisory now that light upper-level southeasterly flow has replaced the previous hostile vertical wind shear conditions. Visible satellite imagery and ASCAT surface wind data from 1200Z-1300Z indicate that Karl's circulation remains well-defined, especially the inner-core wind field. The ASCAT data also revealed a large patch of 35-kt winds 60-100 nmi north and northeast of the center, and that is the intensity used for this advisory. The ASCAT data supports trimming back the 34-kt wind radius in the northeastern quadrant. Karl continues to move westward or 275/13 kt. Karl is expected to move westward along the southern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores ridge for the next couple of days, followed by a west-northwestward motion on days 3-5 as the cyclone approaches a weakness in the ridge located between Bermuda and the Bahamas. The global and regional models are in general agreement on this track scenario through 72 hours, After that time, the models diverge significantly with the GFS, Navy COAMPS, and GFDL models taking Karl farther west as a weaker and more shallow cyclone, whereas the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF models move Karl more northwestward as a stronger and deeper system. For now, the official forecast track remains a compromise between these extremes, close to the consensus model solutions, due to the lack of a stable, consistent run-to-run forecast by the models. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to forecast the vertical wind shear to decrease to less than 10 kt from now through the end of the forecast period, with near-zero shear values occuring at times between 72-120 hours. Such low shear values continue to favor a strengthening trend, especially since Karl will be moving over 30C SSTs by days 4 and 5. However, a somewhat dry mid-level environment is expected to temper the intensification process a little due to occasional intrusions of dry air into the inner-core region of Karl's circulation. Once the cyclone develops an eye feature, then strengthening will become more robust due to the low wind shear conditions and high sea-surface temperatures. Since these parameters can not be forecast very far in advance, the official intensity forecast continues to show slow strengthening throughout the period and remains close to the intensity consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.3N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 18.5N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 19.0N 49.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 19.7N 52.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 20.5N 54.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 22.9N 59.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 25.4N 64.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 28.0N 67.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-18 22:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL POISED TO STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 18 the center of KARL was located near 18.3, -45.0 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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