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Tropical Storm CARLOS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2015-06-15 10:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 15 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 150836 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0900 UTC MON JUN 15 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 2(14) X(14) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 8(21) 1(22) X(22) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 4( 4) 22(26) 11(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X 6( 6) 21(27) 9(36) 3(39) 1(40) X(40) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 17 15(32) 3(35) X(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) L CARDENAS 50 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) L CARDENAS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 8 4(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-15 10:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Jun 2015 08:36:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Jun 2015 08:34:47 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-15 10:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS STILL A TROPICAL STORM... As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 the center of CARLOS was located near 16.7, -101.8 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 19
2015-06-15 10:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 150836 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 ...CARLOS STILL A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 101.8W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 101.8 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Carlos will move parallel to the southern coast of Mexico over the next day or two. However, a small deviation to the north of the track would bring the center of Carlos closer to the coast. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours and Carlos is forecast to become a hurricane again by early Tuesday. Carlos is small cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area tonight or early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday, and maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life- threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 19
2015-06-15 10:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 150834 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0900 UTC MON JUN 15 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 101.8W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 101.8W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 101.6W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 102.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.4N 103.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.9N 104.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.7N 105.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.7N 105.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 22.3N 106.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 101.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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