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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-09-28 17:18:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018 903 WTPZ45 KNHC 281517 CCA TCDEP5 Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 14...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018 Corrected typo in second paragraph. Cloud tops surrounding the distinct eye of Rosa have warmed considerably over the past few hours. A recent SSMI overpass showed a distinct double eyewall structure, and this is likely the reason for the degradation of Rosa's appearance. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have decreased as a result, and the initial intensity has been therefore decreased to 120 kt. Given the continued warming of cloud tops since 1200 UTC, it is possible that Rosa has weakened a little more than this. Since an eyewall replacement cycle is ongoing, Rosa is no longer expected to intensify. In the short term, some additional weakening is likely, typical of major hurricanes undergoing eyewall replacements. If this process completes within the next 24 hours, there will be some opportunity for the hurricane to re-intensify while the shear is low and the hurricane remains over warm SSTs. However, steady weakening is anticipated beginning Saturday night since the cyclone is forecast to cross over much cooler SSTs. By 96 h, a weaker Rosa will likely approach the northern west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the resulting interaction with land will likely cause the cyclone to dissipate. It is worth noting that a farther northwest track would likely result in Rosa weakening faster than currently indicated, while a farther southeast track could allow Rosa to maintain a slightly stronger circulation as it crosses the northern Gulf of California. Rosa has begun its long-anticipated turn toward the northwest, and the initial motion estimate is 315/6 kt. The track models remain in good agreement that Rosa will gradually turn toward the north, and then north-northeast over the next few days ahead of an approaching mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest. No significant changes were made to the official track forecast, but it has been adjusted slightly to the left (or northwest) at most times, in line with the latest consensus guidance. Even though the NHC forecast calls for the surface circulation of Rosa to dissipate after making landfall along the northern Baja California coast, its associated moisture is expected to spread northeastward through parts of the southwest United States. For more information about potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 17.2N 117.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 17.8N 118.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 19.2N 118.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 21.0N 118.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 23.0N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 26.7N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 31.6N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Rosa Graphics
2018-09-28 16:51:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Sep 2018 14:51:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Sep 2018 15:28:07 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-09-28 16:49:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MAJOR HURRICANE ROSA NOW HEADING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 28 the center of Rosa was located near 17.2, -117.5 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 942 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 14
2018-09-28 16:49:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018 952 WTPZ35 KNHC 281449 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018 ...MAJOR HURRICANE ROSA NOW HEADING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 117.5W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 117.5 West. Rosa is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the north by Saturday night. By early next week, Rosa is forecast to turn toward the north-northeast and increase its forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Rosa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is anticipated today. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible on Saturday, but a steady weakening trend is anticipated to begin by Saturday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and southern California late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-09-28 16:49:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 943 FOPZ15 KNHC 281449 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) ENSENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 18(30) X(30) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) IS GUADALUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 21(36) X(36) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 115W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 2(22) X(22) 15N 120W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 3 44(47) 32(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) 20N 120W 50 X 5( 5) 20(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 120W 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 26(47) X(47) X(47) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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