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Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-09-29 10:39:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 the center of Rosa was located near 19.2, -118.2 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Hurricane Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 17
2018-09-29 10:39:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 390 WTPZ25 KNHC 290839 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.2W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.2W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.1W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.5N 118.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.4N 118.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.2N 117.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.9N 115.0W...INLAND NORTHERN BAJA CALIF MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 38.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 118.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 17
2018-09-29 10:39:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 389 WTPZ35 KNHC 290839 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 ...ROSA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 118.2W ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern and central Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Rosa. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of western Baja California later this morning. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 118.2 West. Rosa is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will be approaching central and northern Baja California on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm by late Sunday or early Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of: 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals to 10 inches from Baja California into northwestern Sonora 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals to 6 inches in the Mogollon Rim of Arizona 1 to 2 inches with isolated totals to 4 inches elsewhere across the Desert Southwest, central Rockies, and Great Basin. These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the Baja California Peninsula, and southern California during this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Rosa Graphics
2018-09-29 04:43:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 02:43:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 03:34:06 GMT
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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-09-29 04:42:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018 777 WTPZ45 KNHC 290242 TCDEP5 Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018 The satellite appearance of Rosa continues to degrade due to an ongoing eyewall cycle with weaker convection noted near the eyewall and an apparent moat region. Dvorak estimates continue to fall, and a blend from all agencies gives 95 kt as an initial wind speed. Continued weakening is in the forecast while Rosa moves across progressively cooler SSTs into a higher shear and drier environment. There is some chance that the weakening could pause if the eyewall cycle finishes, but that's less likely as the cyclone encounters the less favorable environment. Thus Rosa is forecast to continue to gradually weaken until it approaches Baja California as a tropical storm. The intensity guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the new NHC prediction is basically an update of the previous one after accounting for the initial winds. Rosa has turned to the north-northwest and accelerated, with an initial motion of 340/8. The cyclone should turn to the north tomorrow and move faster to the north-northeast on Sunday ahead of a mid- to upper-level trough approaching the west coast of the United States. There are no substantial guidance changes to consider, and with the model consensus being quite reliable so far, it makes sense to stay near that aid, which is also very close to the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Mexico and the Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts and landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. 2. Rosa could also bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the central and northern Baja California peninsula in a few days. Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 18.4N 118.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 19.5N 118.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 21.4N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 23.3N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 25.1N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 28.9N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 36.0N 112.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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