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Hurricane Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

2018-09-29 16:48:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 195 FOPZ15 KNHC 291448 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) IS GUADALUPE 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 17(25) 9(34) X(34) X(34) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 2 6( 8) 10(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 20N 120W 34 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 120W 34 4 29(33) 9(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 25N 120W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 18

2018-09-29 16:47:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 988 WTPZ25 KNHC 291447 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 118.4W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 118.4W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 118.4W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.0N 118.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.9N 118.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.9N 117.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.7N 116.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 33.0N 114.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 118.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Rosa Graphics

2018-09-29 10:42:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 08:42:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 09:28:18 GMT

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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 17

2018-09-29 10:40:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 651 WTPZ45 KNHC 290840 TCDEP5 Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 Rosa's satellite appearance has degraded significantly since the previous advisory with an eye no longer evident in infrared imagery. However, a well-defined low-level eye is evident in recent passive microwave imagery. A comparison of the two data sources indicate that the upper-level circulation is tilted to the east of the low-level eye by 12-18 nmi due to westerly shear of about 15 kt as assessed by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity of 85 kt is based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates form TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON. Rosa is moving northward now and the initial motion estimate is 350/08 kt. During the next 72 hours, the hurricane is forecast to move around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge that extends from the Gulf of Mexico westward to Baja California, resulting in a northward motion today, and a turn toward the north-northeast at a faster forward speed on Monday and Tuesday as a mid-latitude trough approaches from the west. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track, so no significant changes were required. The new NHC track forecast lies close to a blend of the consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN. Rosa's intensity has decreased 40 kt during the past 24 hours, with the bulk of the weakening having occurred during the past 18 hours, and additional weakening is expected due to the cyclone moving over cooler water and into a regime of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt by 48 hours. Although Rosa is currently located over 28 deg C SSTs, the depth of the warm water is quite shallow, so cold upwelling occurring beneath the hurricane will act to hasten the weakening process today. Rosa is forecast to approach Baja California as a tropical storm, and then quickly degenerate into a tropical and a remnant low as the cyclone moves across the mountainous terrain of northern Baja California and northwestern mainland Mexico. The official intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA. Key Messages: 1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Mexico, and the Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. 2. Rosa could also bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the central and northern Baja California peninsula in a couple of days. Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 19.2N 118.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 20.5N 118.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 24.4N 118.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 26.2N 117.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 30.9N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND NRN BAJA CALIF 96H 03/0600Z 38.0N 111.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2018-09-29 10:40:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 649 FOPZ15 KNHC 290840 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 28(34) X(34) X(34) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) X(18) P PENASCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 5 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 115W 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) 4(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 120W 34 38 3(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 120W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 3 7(10) 14(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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