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Summary for Hurricane PATRICIA (EP5/EP202015)
2015-10-22 22:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE PATRICIA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN MEXICO TOMORROW... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TODAY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 the center of PATRICIA was located near 15.4, -104.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 11
2015-10-22 22:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 222033 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE PATRICIA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN MEXICO TOMORROW... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 104.6W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Warning north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas and discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch from east of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 104.6 West. Patricia is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and north is expected tonight and Friday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast tonight, and Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning areas by late tonight or early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late Friday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero later today into Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Advisory Number 11
2015-10-22 22:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 222032 TCMEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 2100 UTC THU OCT 22 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN BLAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.6W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 120SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.6W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.5N 105.6W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...145NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.1N 105.9W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.6N 104.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.3N 102.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 104.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane PATRICIA Graphics
2015-10-22 20:01:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Oct 2015 18:01:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Oct 2015 17:57:49 GMT
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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-10-22 19:59:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 221759 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 100 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 This Special Advisory updates the initial and forecast intensity of Patricia, based on a recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft SFMR observation of 114 kt. The aircraft reported that the central pressure was around 958 mb. Some of the wind radii have also been adjusted outward. This Special Advisory replaces the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The environment is expected to be conducive for continued strengthening in the next 24 hours, with the cyclone in an area of very low shear and SSTs above 30C. Some slight weakening is shown on Friday prior to landfall, as southwesterly shear begins to increase, and Patricia could undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. After landfall, Patricia should rapidly weaken, and the low-level circulation should dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico before 72 hours. No change was made to the track forecast from the previous advisory. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area as an extremely dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be completed today, as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area tonight or early Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1800Z 15.0N 104.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.8N 105.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 17.2N 105.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 19.3N 105.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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