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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 39
2018-09-09 04:51:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 516 WTNT31 KNHC 090251 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 ...FLORENCE STILL MOVING SLOWLY... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 55.2W ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM SE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 55.2 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected by the middle of next week. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern U.S. coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is expected to become a hurricane at any time soon and rapid intensification is likely to begin on Sunday. Florence is forecast to become a major hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and are beginning to reach portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 39
2018-09-09 04:50:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 540 WTNT21 KNHC 090250 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 55.2W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT.......110NE 40SE 30SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 55.2W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 54.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.5N 55.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.8N 57.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.2N 59.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.8N 61.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.5N 67.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 30.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 33.8N 77.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 55.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-08 22:46:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 20:46:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 21:22:14 GMT
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 38
2018-09-08 22:45:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 748 WTNT41 KNHC 082045 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 A NOAA P3 aircraft conducted a research mission several hours ago in Florence and measured SFMR surface winds of around 60 kt and winds up to 65 kt at a flight level of 8000 feet. Velocities of 65-70 kt at 500 meters were also measured by the Doppler radar on the plane. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is raised to 60 kt. Dropsonde data also showed that the central pressure was down to 989 mb. Florence is slowly recovering from the dry air its circulation ingested while it was under the influence of strong shear. Convection in the outer bands is relatively thin but is deeper and more persistent near the center. Now that the shear has decreased and the warm waters ahead of Florence reach deeper into the ocean, continued strengthening is anticipated. In fact, the official forecast continues to show a period of rapid intensification, now beginning 12-24 hours, with Florence reaching major hurricane intensity between 36-48 hours. One fly in the ointment is that the SHIPS diagnostics are keeping mid-level relative humidities around the cyclone around 50 percent, which isn't particularly moist, but I'm going to assume that Florence will be able to scour out the dry air within its circulation in the coming days. The HCCA model and the ICON intensity consensus support maintaining a forecast peak intensity of 125 kt in 4 days or so, so no significant changes were made from the previous forecast. Regardless of the specifics of the other models--some of which are higher and some of which are lower--Florence is expected to be a powerful major hurricane on days 3 through 5 as it moves across the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Florence is creeping westward (270 degrees) at 4 kt, trapped between high pressure to its northeast and southwest. A different blocking ridge is expected to develop north and northeast of Bermuda over the next few days, causing Florence to accelerate toward the west-northwest and northwest between days 3-5. There have been some notable shifts in the model guidance on this cycle, with the ECMWF model swinging to the northeast closer to the GFS, and the HWRF model swinging farther south along the southern edge of the guidance envelope. Despite this change in the deterministic ECMWF run, its individual ensemble members are still showing a significant spread of solutions from just north of the Bahamas to offshore the coast of North Carolina by day 5. Because of this spread, the updated NHC track forecast largely maintains continuity and remains close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. And despite the ECMWF's shift, this track prediction remains north of the HCCA and FSSE solutions. Key Messages: 1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the southeast U.S. coast by late next week, and the risk of direct impacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in track and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those impacts. 2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north Florida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue into next week. These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 24.6N 54.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 24.6N 55.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 24.7N 56.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 25.0N 58.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 25.4N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 26.9N 66.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 29.5N 72.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 32.5N 77.0W 120 KT 140 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2018-09-08 22:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 023 FONT11 KNHC 082044 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 55(60) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 56(60) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 50(51) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 50(51) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 64(67) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 58(60) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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