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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)

2018-09-08 16:53:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FLORENCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 8 the center of Florence was located near 24.5, -54.3 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 37

2018-09-08 16:53:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 202 WTNT31 KNHC 081452 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 ...FLORENCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 54.3W ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM SE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 54.3 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected by the middle of next week. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern U.S. coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts, but Florence is likely to restrengthen to a hurricane by tonight. Rapid intensification is expected to start on Sunday, and Florence is forecast to be a major hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and will reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37

2018-09-08 16:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 884 FONT11 KNHC 081452 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 54(54) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 37

2018-09-08 16:52:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 883 WTNT21 KNHC 081452 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 54.3W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......120NE 50SE 20SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 54.3W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 54.1W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N 55.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 20SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.6N 56.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.8N 57.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.1N 59.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.3N 64.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 28.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.5N 77.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 54.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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