je.st
news
Tag: florence
Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-08 22:43:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 8 the center of Florence was located near 24.6, -54.7 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
florence
Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 38
2018-09-08 22:43:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 711 WTNT31 KNHC 082043 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 54.7W ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM SE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 54.7 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected by the middle of next week. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern U.S. coast on Thursday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is expected to become a hurricane tonight, and rapid intensification is likely to begin on Sunday. Florence could become a major hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. Data from the NOAA aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and are beginning to reach portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 38
2018-09-08 22:43:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 972 WTNT21 KNHC 082043 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 54.7W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT.......110NE 40SE 30SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 54.7W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 54.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.6N 55.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.7N 56.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.0N 58.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.4N 60.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.9N 66.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 29.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 32.5N 77.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 54.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-08 16:55:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 14:55:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 15:22:15 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
florence
Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 37
2018-09-08 16:53:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 863 WTNT41 KNHC 081453 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 Florence has undergone a dramatic structural evolution just within the past 6 hours or so. Vertical shear has decreased just enough for the storm to take on a more symmetric shape, with convection developing in a ring around the low-level center, and an elongated band wrapping around to the northeastern part of the circulation. The convection has waned a little bit in intensity, however, due to the presence of dry air, and Dvorak estimates support maintaining an initial intensity of 55 kt for now. A NOAA P-3 aircraft is approaching Florence now on a research mission and should provide some useful data to better assess the storm's intensity. Recent WindSat microwave data revealed that Florence has a well-defined low-level ring in the 37-GHz channel, which tends to be a harbinger of strengthening when environmental conditions are favorable. Since vertical shear is decreasing and should be 10 kt or less by later today, and Florence is heading toward a deeper pool of warm water over the southwestern Atlantic, a significant phase of intensification is likely to begin by tonight, continuing through Tuesday or Wednesday. In fact, the official intensity forecast explicitly shows rapid intensification occurring between 24 and 48 hours from now, and Florence is expected to become a major hurricane by Monday. The HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and the Florida State Superensemble (FSSE), both of which tend to do well in these scenarios, are both near the upper end of the guidance suite, especially through day 3. Even by days 4 and 5, the HWRF, HMON, and ICON intensity consensus are near the top end of the guidance, close to HCCA and FSSE. Given the signals in the environment, and the solutions provided by these models, the NHC intensity forecast shows Florence reaching category 4 intensity by day 3 and maintains that through the end of the forecast period. Florence's longer-term motion is 265/6 kt. The cyclone appears to be slowing down as was expected, and this type of motion is likely to continue for the next 24-36 hours. In fact, the track guidance has slowed down during this period, and the updated NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one. After 36 hours, the most notable change in the models was a northeastward shift in the 06Z GFS. However, that run appears to be an outlier from the rest of the dynamical models, and its trend opposes the slight westward shift noted in the HCCA and FSSE aids. The updated NHC track forecast is therefore very close to or slightly west of the previous forecast on days 4 and 5. The exact path of Florence as it approaches the southeastern U.S. coastline will depend heavily on the position and strength of the blocking high pressure that is expected to develop north of Bermuda and extend westward over the eastern U.S., and so far there has not been much more clarity on those important details. Key Messages: 1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the southeast U.S. coast by late next week, and the risk of direct impacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in track and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those impacts. 2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north Florida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Large swells are affecting Bermuda and will begin to affect portions of the U.S. East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 24.5N 54.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 24.6N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 24.6N 56.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 24.8N 57.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 25.1N 59.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 26.3N 64.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 28.5N 71.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 31.5N 77.0W 120 KT 140 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] [68] [69] [70] [71] [72] [73] [74] [75] [76] [77] next »