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Summary for Hurricane AMANDA (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-24 16:37:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...AMANDA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat May 24 the center of AMANDA was located near 11.4, -109.9 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane AMANDA Public Advisory Number 8
2014-05-24 16:37:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 241437 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 ...AMANDA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 109.9W ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST. AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY EARLY MONDAY. AMANDA IS STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND AMANDA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY SUNDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 8
2014-05-24 16:37:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT MAY 24 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 241437 TCMEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 1500 UTC SAT MAY 24 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 109.9W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 109.9W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 109.7W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 11.6N 110.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.9N 110.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 12.4N 111.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.1N 111.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 109.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Graphics
2014-05-24 10:35:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 May 2014 08:35:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 May 2014 08:33:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-05-24 10:34:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 240834 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 Amanda has continued to become better organized during the past 6 hours, with the system now showing a well-defined central dense overcast and increasing outer convective banding. Satellite intensity estimates are 55 kt and 45 kt from SAB and TAFB. In addition, Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates from CIMSS are near 60 kt, and a recent AMSU intensity estimate from CIRA was 76 kt. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt, and this could be conservative. The initial motion estimate is 295/04. There is little change to the track forecast or the track forecast reasoning. Amanda is moving slowly around the southwestern side of a weak mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This current slow motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. A turn toward the northwest is shown around 36-48 hours, with a slight northward acceleration expected late in the period as the ridge restrengthens to the east and a mid/upper-level trough approaches from the west. The new forecast track is similar to, but slightly faster than, the previous track. The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model shows a 50-70 percent chance of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours, with Amanda expected to remain over warm water in a light vertical wind shear environment. The SHIPS, GFDL, HWRF, and Florida State Superensemble models also call for rapid strengthening. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification for 24-36 hours, and it is possible that Amanda could strengthen more than currently forecast. After 48 hours, a combination of increasing shear caused by the approaching trough and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause steady to rapid weakening. The new intensity forecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast through 48 hours, and after that it shows a faster weakening than the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 11.4N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 11.7N 110.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 11.9N 110.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 12.2N 111.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 12.7N 111.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 14.0N 112.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 15.5N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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