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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-06-26 04:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260238 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Enrique's cloud pattern has continued to improve since this afternoon. There has been a notable increase in banding, and the Central Dense Overcast has become more symmetric. In addition, a SSMIS microwave overpass from shortly before 0000 UTC revealed an improved inner core structure with a band of deep convection wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the center. The latest subjective Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are T3.5 (55 kt) and T3.0 (45 kt), respectively. Given the improvement in structure the intensity was increased to 55 kt on the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory and remains at that value for this advisory. The tropical storm is forecast to remain within an environment of low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next 24 to 36 hours. Those favorable conditions along with Enrique's improved inner core structure are likely to result in a period of rapid strengthening during the next day or so. In fact, the SHIPS guidance explicitly calls for rapid strengthening, and the latest NHC forecast follows suit. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity near major hurricane strength in 36 hours and lies between the SHIPS model and the slightly lower HCCA and ICON consensus aids. After 36-48 h, increasing shear, and possibly cooler upwelled waters, are likely to induce steady weakening throughout the remainder of the forecast period. Enrique continues to move west-northwestward or 295/8 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to weaken over the next day or so which should cause Enrique to slow down and bend northwestward between 24 and 60 hours. After that time, the ridge is expected to re-strengthen causing the tropical cyclone to turn west-northwestward once again. There has been little overall change to the track guidance this cycle, and the updated NHC forecast is not very different from before. It should be noted that the GFS and HWRF models depict a sharper northward turn over the weekend and bring the center of Enrique somewhat closer to the southwestern coast of Mexico than the remainder of the guidance, however the most recent run of the HWRF has trended westward during the early portion of the forecast. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico tonight and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 16.3N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 16.7N 105.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 17.1N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 17.8N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 18.9N 106.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 19.8N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 20.5N 108.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 21.5N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 4

2021-06-26 04:38:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 260237 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0300 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 104.1W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 104.1W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.7N 105.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.1N 105.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N 106.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.9N 106.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.8N 107.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 108.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 21.5N 109.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 104.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 3

2021-06-25 22:57:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 252056 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Enrique has continued to become better organized on satellite imagery over the course of the day. After exhibiting a prominent banding pattern for the majority of the morning and early afternoon, a recent convective burst with cloud tops below -80 C has developed over the center and could be the start of an organized central dense overcast. While there have not been any recent microwave passes to assess the structure underneath the cirrus canopy, scatterometer wind data over the center of Enrique indicated the extent of 34-kt winds east of the center had expanded, with a peak wind retrieval of 38 kt. Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB were T3.0/45 kt, while SAB was T2.5/35 kt. The objective Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) has also been gradual increasing with its latest estimate at T3.5/55 kt. Taking a blend of Dvorak estimates with the somewhat lower scatterometer wind data yields an estimated intensity of 45 kt. Enrique has maintained a west-northwest heading for the majority of the day, but seems to be gradually slowing down at 290/7 kt. The track philosophy for the next few days has remained unchanged, with a weakening mid-level ridge to the north of Enrique likely to lead to a slowdown in the storm's forward motion with a northwest bend in its track. After 72 h, Enrique is expected to begin bending back to the west-northwest as the mid-level ridge re-intensifies, and the cyclone becomes more influenced by low-level steering flow while becoming a more shallow vortex. The latest track guidance has shifted a bit to the right after the first 24 h and the NHC track forecast follows suit, in good agreement with the track guidance consensus, but still remains left of the GFS and HWRF models. Satellite imagery this afternoon suggests Enrique is poised to intensify in the short term, while the storm remains embedded in a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, and warm sea-surface temperatures. In fact, the latest SHIPS-RI guidance indicates there is a 72 percent chance of a 45-kt wind increase over the next 36 hours, nearly 11 times its climatological value. The latest NHC intensity forecast is just below this value, calling for a 85-kt peak intensity in 36 hours. After 48 hours, increasing easterly shear, and possibly cooler upwelled waters as Enrique moves slowly northwestward is expected to begin a weakening trend. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus, but remains just a little below the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). The expanded wind radii east of Enrique has prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Warnings from Zihuatanejo northwestward to Cabo Corrientes. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico tonight and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.9N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 16.3N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 17.2N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 18.0N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 18.9N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 19.8N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 21.0N 109.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 21.9N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-06-25 22:49:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 252048 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 2100 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ZIHUATANEJO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. IN ADDITION...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... *ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... *CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.3W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.3W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.3N 104.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.7N 105.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.2N 105.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.0N 106.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.9N 106.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.8N 107.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 21.0N 109.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 21.9N 110.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 103.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 2

2021-06-25 16:57:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 180 WTPZ45 KNHC 251457 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Convective coverage with Enrique has increased further this morning with a number of prominent banding features along the storm's south and eastern sides. This improvement in structure is also confirmed by a 1045 UTC 37 GHz GMI overpass, which suggested a formative inner core as the convective banding increased. The latest round of subjective Dvorak satellite estimates were both T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, while the UW-CIMSS advanced Dvorak technique (ADT) estimate was up to T3.0/45 kt. Blending these estimates but learning towards the higher ADT value yields a current intensity of 40 kt for this advisory. The current motion of Enrique continues to the west-northwest at 290/8 kt, while the storm remains steered by a large mid-level ridge anchored over Mexico. However, this ridge will shift westward and weaken to the north of Enrique as a mid- to upper-level trough digs southward into the southwestern US. This pattern will likely slow down the steering currents over Enrique and allow for a gradual turn to the northwest late this weekend and early next week. Later in the forecast, Enrique's track is expected to bend back to the west-northwest as it becomes an increasingly shallow cyclone and the low- to mid-level ridging builds back in over Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast is in decent agreement with the track consensus, but some spread remains, with the GFS and HMON still on the right side of the guidance envelope. The current light northeasterly shear impacting Enrique is forecast to decrease even further over the next 24 to 48 hours while the cyclone traverses warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures and remains embedded in a moist mid-level environment. These conditions favor at least steady intensification, and Enrique is now forecast to become a hurricane in 24 hours and reach a peak intensity of 85 kt in 48 hours. Thereafter, easterly vertical wind shear could increase somewhat over the system, and its slow forward motion could lead to some upwelling of cooler waters underneath the cyclone. Thus, weakening is forecast to begin after 48 hours. By the end of the forecast period, sea-surface temperatures drop sharply along Enrique's expected track and more rapid weakening is likely. The latest NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one during the first 48 hours, but is still a little below the reliable HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). Thereafter, the rate of weakening has been increased a bit as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly unfavorable. While the center of Enrique is still forecast to remain offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the large wind radii predicted on the eastern side of the storm necessitates the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch from Punta San Telmo northwestward to Cabo Corrientes. In addition, outer rainbands are expected to cause locally heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.6N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 15.9N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.4N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 16.9N 105.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 17.6N 106.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 18.5N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 19.2N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 20.1N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.9N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

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