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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-06-21 04:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 21 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 210237 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0300 UTC MON JUN 21 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 80.4W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 80.4W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 81.3W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.9N 76.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 38.1N 71.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 44.5N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 47.5N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 80.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-06-20 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 202032 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Satellite and surface observations show that Claudette's circulation has become elongated today and that there is a fairly large area of light winds near the center. Observations along the southeastern U.S. coast and over coastal sections of the Carolinas indicate that the winds have increased somewhat but these data still support an initial intensity of 25 kt. As Claudette approaches the coast overnight and Monday morning, restrengthening is anticipated, and the cyclone is forecast to regain tropical storm status before it exits the coast of North Carolina. Some additional strengthening is forecast while Claudette moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and the shear remains low. The system should become extratropical Tuesday afternoon when it passes near Nova Scotia, and the global models indicate that it will degenerate into a trough of low pressure by Wednesday morning. The NHC intensity foreast is close to the intensity model consensus and follows the trends of the various global models. The depression is moving east-northeastward at around 15 kt. A mid-latitude trough that is moving into the central United States should continue to steer Claudette east-northeastward to northeastward over the next couple of days. The center of Claudette is forecast to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina Monday morning, then pass well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday night, and be near or just southeast of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. The dynamical model guidance remains in very good agreement and the NHC forecast again lies near the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding from North Florida and southeastern Georgia into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening across parts of the central and eastern Carolinas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 34.2N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 35.0N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/1800Z 36.9N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 22/0600Z 39.3N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 42.4N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 23/0600Z 45.5N 58.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-06-20 22:31:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 202031 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 2100 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 82.5W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 82.5W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 83.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 35.0N 79.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.9N 74.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.3N 69.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 42.4N 63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 45.5N 58.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 82.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-06-20 16:43:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 467 WTNT43 KNHC 201442 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Surface observations and visible satellite imagery show that the center of Claudette is moving across central Georgia this morning. Although the deep convection near the center has waned overnight, loose convective bands are evident over portions of North and South Carolina, and to the southeast of the center across southeastern Georgia and northern Florida. There have been a few wind reports of 20-23 kt along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina within the past couple of hours, with the higher reports occurring at some elevated towers. The initial wind speed is maintained at 25 kt, but the strongest winds are well removed from the center and occurring mainly over water. Claudette is beginning to accelerate east-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 070/15 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. Claudette should continue to accelerate east-northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough moving into the central United States. The center of the cyclone should be near the coast of North Carolina Monday morning, and then pass well offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday afternoon and Monday night. The track guidance remains in very good agreement and the updated NHC forecast is very close to the previous official foreast. As the large circulation of Claudette moves off of the southeastern United States coast later today and tonight, winds will increase along and offshore of the coast, and the system is expected to regain tropical-storm status by Monday morning. Additional re-strengthening is foreast on Monday and Monday night while the cyclone moves over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. After that time, the system is expected to quickly transition to an extratropical cyclone, and the global models show the post-tropical cyclone opening up into a trough of low pressure by Wednesday morning. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various intensity aids and the modest deepening indicated by the global models. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle, North Florida, and southern Georgia today, and into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 33.8N 84.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 34.4N 81.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/1200Z 35.8N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/0000Z 38.0N 71.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 22/1200Z 41.1N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 44.3N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-06-20 16:41:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 201441 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 1500 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 84.2W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 84.2W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 84.9W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.4N 81.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.8N 76.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 38.0N 71.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 41.1N 66.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 44.3N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 84.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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