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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-06-20 10:48:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200848 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 The area of deep convection near the center of Claudette has weakened over the past several hours, though rain bands have become more distinct in the southeastern quadrant. Surface observations continue to indicate that the maximum winds are about 25 kt, and these winds are almost all over the Gulf of Mexico well to the south of the center. Claudette is moving east-northeastward at about 11 kt. The system should gradually accelelerate in that direction through tonight as it moves ahead of a digging trough over the central United States, and all of the models show the system near the North Carolina coast by midday Monday. Claudette should then move even faster to the northeast through Tuesday ahead of the aforementioned trough due to stronger steering flow. Guidance remains in very good agreement through that time, and little change was made to the previous forecast. The end of the forecast remains uncertain as some of the guidance is showing more of a turn to the left closer to Nova Scotia. However, a stronger system would argue for something that remains more separate from the large mid-latitude trough steering the system, so the new forecast is close to the previous one, on the south side of the guidance. Conditions appear to be conducive for the re-development of Claudette once it encounters a more unstable marine environment late today. The system should move close to the Gulf Stream by Monday afternoon, likely fueling intensification while the shear is low. The previously divergent model suite is in better agreement now, with the GFS, UKMET and ECMWF models all showing the system becoming a tropical storm again near the North Carolina Outer Banks with some strengthening over the western Atlantic Ocean. Extratropical transiton should be quick after it moves north of the Gulf Stream, assisted by strong shear in 48 to 60 hours. The new intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, close to the NOAA Corrected Consensus Guidance. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, northern Alabama, and Georgia through this morning, and into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 33.3N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/1800Z 33.8N 83.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0600Z 34.7N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1800Z 36.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 22/0600Z 39.3N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 42.7N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/0600Z 46.5N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-06-20 10:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 200843 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 85.8W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 85.8W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 33.8N 83.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 34.7N 79.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.5N 74.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.3N 69.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 42.7N 63.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 46.5N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 85.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Remnants of Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-06-20 10:34:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200834 TCDEP4 Remnants Of Dolores Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Satellite imagery and limited surface observations indicate that Dolores has dissipated over the mountainous terrain of central Mexico. Although a mid-level circulation is evident in satellite imagery, this structure no longer extends down to the surface. Therefore, this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. Although the system has dissipated, the remnants of Dolores remain capable of producing heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico today, which could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. For more information, see products issued by your national meteorological service. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through today, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 23.5N 103.7W 20 KT 25 MPH 12H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
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Remnants of Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-06-20 10:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200833 TCMEP4 REMNANTS OF DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 103.7W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 103.7W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 103.8W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 103.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-06-20 04:40:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200239 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Dolores Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Tropical Depression Dolores continues to rapidly weaken. It is getting very difficult to locate a low-level center at this time, if one still exists over the mountainous terrain. Given the length of time already spent over this terrain, the estimated initial intensity is being lowered to 25 kt for this advisory. Dolores is moving north at 18 kt between a ridge to its east and a mid-level low to its west. This motion is expected to continue through tonight, keeping Dolores well inland over western Mexico. This track over the rugged terrain should cause Dolores to finally dissipate late tonight or on Sunday morning. Although Dolores may dissipate soon, the abundant moisture associated with the system is expected to continue to produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico for the remainder of the weekend. Key Messages: 1. Wind gusts to near tropical storm force will likely continue over coastal sections of west-central Mexico to the south of Puerto Vallarta through early tonight. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through Sunday, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 22.3N 104.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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