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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-06-21 22:31:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 21 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 212031 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 2100 UTC MON JUN 21 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 72.1W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 210SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 72.1W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 73.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.5N 67.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 42.8N 62.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 150SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 46.0N 56.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 150SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N 72.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-06-21 16:49:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 211449 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Claudette's low-level center is estimated to be back over water. However, it is difficult to locate in surface observation data due to the broad inner-core wind field and elongated pressure envelope near the NC/VA coasts in which the cyclone is embedded. For now, the surface center has been placed close to the low- to mid-level circulation center noted in KAKQ and KMHX Doppler radar data. The initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based on a 1200 UTC 32-kt wind report from ship 3EVZ8 located about 130 nmi southeast of the center. Claudette continues to accelerate east-northeastward and the motion is now 060/24 kt. The track forecast and discussion remain pretty straightforward. Claudette is now caught up in the deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the north side of a broad subtropical ridge and ahead of a mid-latitude trough currently moving into the eastern and southeastern United States. The cyclone or its remnants will gradually lift out toward the northeast ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough by tonight, with that motion continuing through Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of consensus track models TVCA, GFEX, and HCCA. As Claudette continues to accelerate, its increased forward speed could result in the low-level wind field opening up into a trough, which would result in the cessation of the system as a tropical cyclone. For now, however, the assumption is that the cyclone could strengthen a little more, which would allow for the surface wind field to remain closed today and into Tuesday until the system weakens over the cold North Atlantic waters north of the Gulf Stream, which is located along roughly 38N latitude. As a result, Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in about 24 h, follows by dissipation in about 48 h. The official NHC intensity forecast remains very similar to the previous one, and the track closely follows the intensity consensus models HCCA and IVCN. Key Message: 1. Heavy rain from Claudette will continue to diminish this morning across far southeast Virginia and the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 37.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 38.7N 71.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 41.8N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/0000Z 44.8N 59.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-06-21 10:42:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210841 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 500 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 The elongated low-level center of Claudette is located over eastern North Carolina this morning, while a curved band of convection continues pushing eastward across the adjacent coastal and offshore waters. Surface pressures have fallen slightly overnight near the estimated center position, and Frying Pan Shoals buoy 41013 off the coast of southeastern North Carolina reported a brief period of sustained tropical-storm-force winds shortly after 06 UTC. Therefore, Claudette's initial intensity is raised to 35 kt with this advisory, making it a tropical storm once again. Claudette continues to accelerate east-northeastward as it is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough that is approaching the eastern United States. The storm will move off the North Carolina coast within the next few hours, and a bit more strengthening is possible today as it passes near the north wall of the Gulf Stream. The official NHC forecast hangs onto Claudette as a tropical cyclone through tonight, then quickly transitions it to a post-tropical cyclone by 36 h. The time of dissipation is also moved up a day earlier with this advisory, which is consistent with the latest global model fields that show an open trough approaching Atlantic Canada. Otherwise, the official NHC forecast remains very similar to the previous one, and the track closely follows the multi-model consensus. Some of the global guidance suggests that Claudette could lose its closed low-level circulation and open up into a trough soon after emerging into the western Atlantic Ocean later today. Given the current poor center definition, it is a plausible alternative scenario that Claudette dissipates faster than shown below. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain from Claudette will continue over the North Carolina coast this morning. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast through this morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 35.6N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 21/1800Z 37.0N 74.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 22/0600Z 39.5N 68.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 42.8N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-06-21 10:39:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 21 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 210839 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0900 UTC MON JUN 21 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO CAPE FEAR. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 77.6W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 77.6W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 79.0W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 37.0N 74.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.5N 68.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 150SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 42.8N 63.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 150SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 77.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-06-21 04:38:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210238 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Deep convection is increasing in curved bands to the east and northeast of the center, however the center of circulation itself is not very well defined. Coastal surface observations indicate that the highest winds have increased to near 30 kt. Some additional restrengthening is anticipated, and Claudette is expected to regain tropical storm strength prior to moving into the Atlantic on Monday. A little more intensification could occur while the system moves near the northern edge of the Gulf Stream during the next day or so, as reflected in the official forecast. Within 48 hours, as the cyclone moves near Atlantic Canada, the global models suggest that the system will lose tropical characteristics, or even open up into a trough. Claudette's forward speed is gradually increasing and the current motion is estimated to be near 070/17 kt. On the projected track, the system should move into the western Atlantic tomorrow. The flow ahead of a broad 500 mb trough approaching the eastern United States should cause the cyclone to accelerate east- northeastward to northeastward during the next 48 hours. The official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and close to the model consensus TVCN. No changes to the warning and watch along the southeastern United States coasts are required at this time. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding from southeastern Georgia into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. A couple of tornadoes are possible through early Monday across parts of the coastal Carolinas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast by early Monday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 34.7N 80.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 35.9N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0000Z 38.1N 71.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 22/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 44.5N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 23/1200Z 47.5N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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