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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 49

2020-11-12 15:47:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 121447 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 The center of Eta made landfall near Cedar Key, Florida with an estimated intensity of 45 kt shortly after the release of the previous NHC advisory package. Since that time, the center of Eta has moved across the northern portion of the Florida peninsula. Some weakening has occurred, but ship and buoy observations along and just off the northeast Florida coast support an initial intensity of 40 kt. Little change in strength is expected when Eta moves over the western Atlantic tonight and early Friday due to moderate to strong southwesterly shear. The ECMWF and UKMET models indicate that Eta could strengthen after it merges with a frontal zone and becomes extratropical well offshore of the east coast of the United States late Friday and Friday night. The NHC forecast calls for some slight intensification of the extratropical cyclone before it is absorbed by a large low pressure area over the western Atlantic on Saturday. Eta is moving northeastward at about 13 kt. Eta should continue to accelerate northeastward over the next day or so within the mid-latitude westerlies, ahead of a trough that will move across the Great Lakes region on Friday. The new official forecast is again a little faster than the previous NHC track, but the latest guidance did not require much cross-track change. Deep-layer moisture from that has spread northward along a frontal boundary across the Carolinas is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding that is not directly associated with Eta. See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for additional information. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the warning area along portions of the northeast Florida Coast through early this afternoon. 2. Localized bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of the Florida Peninsula today, resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of West Florida lasting into the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 30.2N 81.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 32.0N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 34.1N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 37.3N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/1200Z 40.5N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 11

2020-11-12 15:45:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 300 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 121445 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 Although the cloud top temperatures across the broad comma-shaped convective shield have warmed this morning, there is some new convection that has been developing nearer to Theta's center over the past few hours. Unfortunately, the scatterometer passes this morning missed sampling the winds near the center of the cyclone. However, the partial ASCAT-A overpass showed that 45 kt winds are occurring nearly 100 n mi to the southwest of the center of Theta. Therefore it is assumed that stronger winds are still occurring closer to the center of the cyclone, and the initial intensity is being held at 55 kt. Theta has now turned to the right, and the initial motion is 080/10 kt. For about the next 36 h, the cyclone is expected to continue moving just north of east around the north side of a mid-level ridge. A slower east-southeastward motion is expected from 36-72 h as the mid-level ridge to the south weakens and mid- to upper-level northerly flow moves over Theta. After 72 h, Theta or its remnants are expected to turn northeastward or northward and accelerate in the low-level flow ahead of an approaching deep-layer mid-latitude cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The latest track forecast is little changed from the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus tracks. The shear across Theta is expected to relax somewhat over the day or so, while moving over cooler waters. The counteracting effects should allow the cyclone to maintain its intensity. By this weekend, strong northerly shear is expected to impact Theta, while stable air gets entrained into its circulation. This should cause the cyclone to weaken, with the system likely degenerating into a remnant low by Sunday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is just slightly above the guidance through 60 h, and is near the various consensus models thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 31.6N 28.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 31.7N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 31.8N 24.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 31.8N 22.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 31.5N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 31.2N 20.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 31.1N 19.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1200Z 32.7N 19.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1200Z 37.6N 17.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 11

2020-11-12 15:44:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 121444 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 28.8W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 100SE 130SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 540SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 28.8W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 29.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.7N 27.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.8N 24.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.8N 22.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.5N 21.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.2N 20.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.1N 19.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 32.7N 19.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 37.6N 17.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 28.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 48

2020-11-12 09:54:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 120854 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Satellite images indicate that Eta has lost most of its central deep convection over the past several hours, with the radar center becoming poorly defined and decreasing winds aloft noted. The last Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission found winds to support about 50 kt, and with the continued loss of organization, the current wind speed is lowered to 45 kt. The tropical cyclone should be making landfall in the Cedar Key area soon. Eta is forecast to weaken over its short passage over the Florida peninsula later today, and over the western Atlantic tonight due to strong shear. There has been a change in some of the guidance showing the tropical cyclone re-gaining strength as a non-tropical low after 24 hours due to a more favorable positioning with the next mid-latitude trough near the Great Lakes on Friday. The strongest solutions are seen in the UKMET and ECMWF models, which indicate even storm-force winds are possible in a few days. I'd rather wait one more cycle to see if this trend continues but, as a compromise, the new forecast shows some re-strengthening as an extratropical cyclone and reverses any former weakening trend. The storm is moving a little faster to the northeast this morning. Eta should accelerate even more in that direction later today as it becomes steered by the faster middle-latitude flow. The new forecast shows a more rapid forward speed than the previous advisory, which is related to the ECMWF/UKMET model solutions of Eta showing some extratropical intensification and staying coherent, rather than shearing out as a weak low like the GFS. Eta should merge with a large non-tropical low in 2 to 3 days. Key Messages: 1. There remains a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from the Middle of Longboat Key to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the warning area along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast during the next few hours, and in the warning area on the east coast later today. 3. Localized bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of the Florida Peninsula today, resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of west Florida lasting into the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 29.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 30.6N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 32.6N 78.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 35.2N 73.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0600Z 38.0N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 48

2020-11-12 09:53:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 120853 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING BETWEEN BONITA BEACH AND MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY FLORIDA INCLUDING CHARLOTTE HARBOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FLORIDA LINE NORTHWARD TO ST. ANDREWS SOUND GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 83.0W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 83.0W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 83.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.6N 81.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.6N 78.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.2N 73.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 38.0N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 83.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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