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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-10-23 16:56:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 231456 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 Epsilon's structure has not changed appreciably in the last 12 hours, with a small eye intermittently appearing in geostationary satellite and polar-orbiting microwave imagery with additional well-defined curved outer bands. The initial intensity is kept at 75 kt based on SAB and TAFB satellite estimates and the satellite trends. The cyclone continues to move to the north but at a slightly faster speed (360/09 kt). This northward track is expected for the next day or so as the hurricane is primarily steered by a deep-layer ridge located to its east. Thereafter, Epsilon is forecast to turn toward the northeast and accelerate due to strong mid-latitude westerlies ahead of an approaching longwave trough. By 60 h, Epsilon will be moving rapidly over cooler waters and is expected to be completing extratropical transition. The latest NHC official track is very similar to the previous one and is near the corrected-consensus models. Epsilon remains in a low vertical wind shear environment and will actually be moving over slightly warmer waters over the next day as it passes across a warm Gulf Stream eddy. It is unclear, however, that the current storm structure would allow for any strengthening. Thus, the official forecast maintains the current intensity for the next 36 h, and it is likely that inner-core processes will dictate any short-term fluctuations in intensity. After 36 h, slow weakening should begin as southwesterly vertical wind shear gradually increases and Epsilon reaches the north edge of the Gulf Stream. However, the system is likely to merge with another mid-latitude cyclone and become a powerful extratropical low at the end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast closely mirrors the previous one and the latest global model wind speed consensus forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 34.1N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 35.6N 61.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 37.5N 60.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 40.3N 56.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 43.7N 49.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 48.1N 39.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/1200Z 52.5N 27.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-10-23 16:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 231449 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 61.6W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......220NE 220SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 360SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 61.6W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 61.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.6N 61.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...230NE 220SE 150SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 37.5N 60.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 40.3N 56.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 270SE 250SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.7N 49.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 160SE 130SW 50NW. 34 KT...270NE 360SE 340SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 48.1N 39.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 120SE 150SW 60NW. 34 KT...290NE 390SE 410SW 340NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 52.5N 27.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 100SE 150SW 100NW. 34 KT...320NE 390SE 570SW 450NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 61.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PAPIN
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-10-23 10:39:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230838 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 Although Epsilon is moving over 25.5 deg C sea-surface temperatures (SST), the hurricane has continued to generate deep convection around the small 15-nmi-wide eye. Upper-level outflow also remains impressive in all quadrants, but especially in the northern semicircle where a pronounced poleward outflow channel has become established. The initial intensity remains at 75 kt based on a Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB yielding a Current Intensity (CI) number of T4.5/77 kt. The 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii were expanded based on recent ASCAT scatterometer wind data between 0100-0300 UTC. Epsilon is now moving northward, or 360/07 kt. The hurricane is forecast to continue moving northward today around the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located east of the cyclone. On Saturday, Epsilon is expected to turn northeastward and accelerate ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated frontal system that will be moving off the U.S. east coast on Sunday. That motion will take Epsilon over increasingly cooler SSTs as low as 20 deg C by Sunday morning, resulting in extratropical transition by 60 h, if not sooner. The new NHC official track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the middle of the tightly packed simple- and corrected- consensus models. The current relatively low southerly vertical wind shear of about 10 kt is forecast to gradually increase to more than 20 kt by this evening. Although Epsilon will be moving over a modestly warm oceanic eddy today, which could result in some brief restrengthening of the cyclone, the official intensity forecast calls for the intensity to remain steady for the next 36 h, followed by slow weakening thereafter due to the hurricane moving over near-20 deg C SSTs by 48 hours. By 60 hours, the global models and the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance indicate that Epsilon will have undergone extratropical transition over the far north Atlantic. Afterward, the global models continue to show Epsilon getting absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone at the higher latitudes, resulting in a very powerful low developing with a central pressure near 940 mb. That low then moves eastward, possibly menacing northern Europe by the middle of next week. The forecast wind radii, which show the cyclone expanding over the next few days, are in good agreement with the dynamical consensus radii guidance, RVCN. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 33.1N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 34.7N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 36.7N 61.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 38.8N 58.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 42.0N 54.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 46.0N 45.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/0600Z 49.9N 34.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-10-23 10:34:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230834 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 61.6W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......220NE 220SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 360SE 600SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 61.6W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 61.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.7N 61.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...220NE 220SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 36.7N 61.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...230NE 230SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.8N 58.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 180SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 42.0N 54.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 10NW. 50 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 280SE 260SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 46.0N 45.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 130SE 120SW 30NW. 34 KT...250NE 310SE 300SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 49.9N 34.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 140SE 140SW 30NW. 34 KT...320NE 360SE 360SW 270NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 61.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-10-23 04:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 253 WTNT42 KNHC 230232 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 The eye became a little more apparent on satellite images but recently has become less defined. The system has a somewhat ragged-looking Central Dense Overcast with a broad outer cloud band wrapping around the western semicircle of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is fairly well-defined over the northern portion of the system. The current intensity estimate is kept at 75 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS. Since Epsilon should be passing near a modestly warm oceanic eddy during the next day or so, some slight short-term restrengthening is allowed for in the official forecast. Later in the forecast period, gradual weakening should occur due to cooler waters, but the system is likely to remain a strong cyclone for the next few days. By around 72 hours, the GFS and SHIPS guidance indicates that Epsilon will have undergone extratropical transition over the north Atlantic. Afterward, the global models show the system merging with another cyclone at the higher latitudes. Epsilon continues to move just a bit to the west of due north, or at about 345/8 kt. The cyclone is expected to move mainly northward on the western side of a mid-tropospheric ridge during the next couple of days. By around 48 hours, Epsilon should turn northeastward and accelerate as it becomes caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is not much different from the previous one, and is very close to the latest corrected dynamical consensus, HCCA, prediction. The forecast wind radii, which show the cyclone expanding over the next few days, are in good agreement with the dynamical consensus radii guidance, RVCN. Key Messages: 1. Winds at Bermuda will subside overnight, and the Tropical Storm Warning for that island has been discontinued. 2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 32.6N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 33.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 35.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 37.8N 60.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 40.5N 56.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 44.3N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 48.4N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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