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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 17

2020-10-23 04:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230231 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 61.6W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 210SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 360SE 560SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 61.6W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.8N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 130SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.8N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...230NE 220SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 37.8N 60.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 180SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 40.5N 56.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 10NW. 50 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 280SE 260SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 44.3N 50.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 130SE 120SW 30NW. 34 KT...250NE 310SE 300SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 48.4N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 140SE 140SW 30NW. 34 KT...320NE 360SE 360SW 270NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 61.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 16

2020-10-22 22:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 222033 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 Satellite images indicate that the eye of Epsilon has lost definition over the past several hours. While satellite intensity estimates haven't changed much yet, they were generally higher than the earlier reconnaissance data. The initial wind speed is set to 75 kt, on the lower side of the satellite estimates after placing more weight on the aircraft data. Epsilon is moving faster to the north-northwest this afternoon, at roughly 8 kt. The hurricane should turn northward overnight and continue on that heading for a day or two while it moves through a break in the central Atlantic ridge. Epsilon is likely to move considerably faster to the northeast over the weekend as it get caught in the mid-latitude flow. The only significant adjustment to this forecast is a small northward shift in a couple of days. The new NHC track is still south of the model consensus over the weekend and beyond, placing more emphasis on the global models than the regional hurricane guidance. After 72 hours, the cyclone is forecast to merge with a much larger extratropical cyclone over the far north Atlantic. The small core that Epsilon has maintained for the past couple of days seems to be degrading, and perhaps it is forming a larger secondary wind maximum based on AMSR microwave data. Otherwise, a trough interaction and a small warm eddy near the Gulf Stream could lead to a slight recovery in Epsilon's strength tomorrow or Saturday. Either way, the global models make this hurricane's wind field quite a bit larger (especially the 50- and 64-kt winds), and that's reflected in the latest wind radii forecast. The new NHC wind speed prediction is about the same as the previous one, adjusted slightly for a lower initial wind speed. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda. 2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 31.9N 61.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 34.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 36.8N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 39.0N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 42.2N 53.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 46.5N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake/Papin

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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-10-22 16:57:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 221457 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 61.2W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......270NE 200SE 120SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..630NE 360SE 510SW 510NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 61.2W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 61.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.9N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.4N 61.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.1N 61.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 36.9N 60.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 260SE 200SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.6N 57.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 40NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 240SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.0N 50.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 150SE 120SW 40NW. 34 KT...290NE 320SE 310SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 52.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 61.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PAPIN

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Sherwin-Williams Introduces 2021 Colormix Trend Forecast for Industrial Wood Markets

2020-10-22 16:56:23| Coatings World Breaking News

Sherwin-Williams Global Color & Design Center experts forecast wood finishes that reflect natures rhythm of color.

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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 14

2020-10-22 10:48:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220848 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 Epsilon's eye has lost some definition and become cloud filled in conventional satellite imagery during the past few hours, and an 0604 UTC AMSR2 microwave image showed that the eyewall has been eroded on the west side. Given the degradation of the cloud pattern and lowering Dvorak estimates, Epsilon's initial intensity is being set, likely generously, at 95 kt. A recent UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate suggests that the intensity could be 10-15 kt lower than that, but I'd rather we see the aircraft reconnaissance data in a few hours before reducing it any further. Epsilon's trochoidal wobbles have continued overnight, but a longer-term 12-hour motion suggests that the hurricane has turned toward the northwest (320/6 kt). A mid-tropospheric high over the central Atlantic will be Epsilon's main driver, causing the hurricane to turn toward the north-northwest later today and then toward the north tonight. Shorter-term deviations around this general trajectory will be possible if the trochoidal oscillations continue through the day. Epsilon is forecast to turn toward the northeast and accelerate on Saturday when it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, taking it past southeastern Newfoundland and into the north Atlantic early next week. The new NHC track forecast is down the middle of the tightly clustered model guidance, and close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. However, because of the recent wobbles, this new forecast lies about 40 n mi to the east of the previous forecast during the first 36 hours. Epsilon's forecast track takes it over a rather homogeneous field of sea surface temperatures between 25-26 degrees Celsius for the next 48-60 hours as vertical shear increases somewhat. Gradual weakening is anticipated during that period, but a more sudden decrease in ocean temperatures after 60 hours should induce quicker weakening thereafter. Hurricane and global models both agree on this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN consensus and the HFIP Corrected Consensus. Epsilon is expected to merge with a frontal zone and become extratropical by day 4. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda. 2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 30.6N 60.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 31.6N 61.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 34.7N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 36.6N 61.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 38.7N 59.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 41.6N 54.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 50.0N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/0600Z 60.0N 22.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

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