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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-10-22 10:47:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 714 WTNT22 KNHC 220847 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 60.9W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......270NE 200SE 120SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..660NE 540SE 570SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 60.9W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 60.5W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.6N 61.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...220NE 210SE 130SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 130SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.7N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 140SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 36.6N 61.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 40SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...260NE 250SE 160SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.7N 59.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 41.6N 54.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 280SE 250SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 50.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 60.0N 22.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 60.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-10-22 04:41:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220241 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 The eye of the hurricane remains well-defined this evening, although the surrounding cloud tops are beginning to warm a bit. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Epsilon a little while ago and found peak 700 mb flight level winds of 110 kt, which continues to support an intensity of 100 kt. The central pressure had fallen slightly since this afternoon, but recent center fixes suggest that it is leveling off. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next 12 hours or so due to inner-core processes. Later on Thursday, a slow weakening trend is expected to begin as vertical shear over Epsilon should gradually increase. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest model consensus. By 96 hours, the global models indicate that the strong cyclone will merge with a frontal zone over the mid-latitudes, and the NHC forecast shows the system as extratropical by that time. Epsilon's motion has exhibited what is likely a trochoidal wobble, which is typical of slow-moving intense hurricanes. This has resulted in a more westward track during the past 6 hours or so. The initial motion estimate is 285/7 kt, and is indeed more westward than previous estimates. However, recent satellite images indicate little short-term motion. The track model guidance is in very good agreement that Epsilon will move northwestward and then north-northwestward on Friday and Friday night. Later, the cyclone should move north of the subtropical ridge, and turn northward and northeastward. By days 4-5, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward under the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast is right on top of the latest corrected multi-model consensus guidance, HCCA and is only slightly west of the previous NHC track through 24 hours. This puts the closest approach of Epsilon to Bermuda between 00Z and 06Z Friday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight, and continuing intermittently through late Thursday, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda. 2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 29.6N 60.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 30.5N 61.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 31.8N 61.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 33.2N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 34.9N 62.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 36.9N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 39.2N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 46.5N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/0000Z 56.0N 25.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-10-22 04:40:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220240 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 60.6W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......300NE 150SE 120SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..680NE 480SE 600SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 60.6W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 60.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.5N 61.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...300NE 150SE 130SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.8N 61.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 180SE 140SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.2N 62.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 200SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 34.9N 62.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 200SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 36.9N 61.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 220SE 170SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.2N 58.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 250SE 220SW 220NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 46.5N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 56.0N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 60.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-10-21 22:55:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 212055 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 Epsilon has continued to defy expectations and rapidly intensify this afternoon. The satellite presentation of the hurricane is very impressive, with a warm well-defined eye and a closed ring of eyewall convection with cloud tops colder than -60 deg C. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated Epsilon earlier today measured SFMR winds of around 100 kt and max flight level winds of 100 kt. Dropsonde data indicated peak surface winds of 106 kt with deeper-layer averages of 95-100 kt, which also lends support to the higher SFMR winds, and surface pressures have fallen since the special advisory. Therefore the initial intensity is raised to 100 kt, making Epsilon the 4th major hurricane of the season. Epsilon's estimated motion is 305/9 kt, and the hurricane is expected to gradually turn more northwestward tonight as it is steered by a mid-level ridge building to its north and east. Epsilon is forecast to pass east of Bermuda and make its closest approach to the island Thursday afternoon or evening. As the ridge becomes oriented east of the hurricane, Epsilon will turn northward and move into the mid-latitudes, where it is expected to accelerate northeastward across the central Atlantic this weekend. There was a westward shift noted in a couple of the track models, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly westward in the near-term period to better reflect the guidance consensus. As Epsilon continues to gain latitude, environmental conditions will become increasingly unfavorable for additional strengthening. The hurricane is forecast to move over cooler waters beginning tonight, and southerly deep-layer shear is expected within the next 24-48 h. With that being said, small intensity fluctuations cannot be completely ruled out tonight given Epsilon's development trends and well-organized structure. The NHC intensity forecast lies closest to the SHIPS guidance for the first 24-36 h of the forecast period. Afterwards, the official forecast shows more steady weakening with the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle, and the new NHC intensity prediction follows the intensity consensus. Epsilon could begin its extratropical transition by Sunday night, and it is forecast to be a powerful extratropical cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic by day 5. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning this evening and continuing intermittently through late Thursday, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda. 2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 29.6N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 30.5N 60.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 33.0N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 34.4N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 36.2N 61.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 38.3N 59.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 44.5N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 54.0N 28.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-10-21 22:51:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 212051 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 60.0W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......390NE 120SE 120SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..720NE 360SE 450SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 60.0W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 59.7W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.5N 60.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...330NE 150SE 130SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 180SE 140SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 200SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.4N 62.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...260NE 200SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 36.2N 61.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 220SE 170SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.3N 59.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 240SE 210SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 44.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 54.0N 28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 60.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE
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