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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 22

2020-10-14 10:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140837 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Norbert continues to produce a concentrated area of deep convection, but it has been very difficult pinpointing the exact location of the center overnight. Earlier ASCAT data and an 0152 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass suggests that the center could be a little north of the previous estimates, but overnight shortwave infrared imagery and TAFB and SAB fixes still place it closer to the southern portion of the convective mass. The advisory position is a compromise between the various estimates, but leans toward the previous track out of respect for continuity. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 35 kt, which is used as the initial wind speed for this advisory. The earlier ASCAT overpass revealed some slightly stronger wind vectors, but these appear to have been rain inflated. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 325/13 kt. Norbert is moving northwestward between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level low to its northwest. This general heading should continue over the next 24 to 36 hours with some reduction in forward speed as Norbert begins to weaken and is steered by the weaker low-level flow. The dynamical models are in general agreement, but there are differences in how fast and far north Norbert will move. The models that maintain a deeper cyclone depict a more poleward motion. The NHC track leans toward the southern solutions by 24 hours since Norbert is likely to weaken and become a more vertically shallow system by that time. Norbert only has a short window of opportunity in which to strengthen this morning. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should begin to weaken the tropical storm. Norbert is likely to become a remnant low in 24 to 36 hours as it encounters sea surface temperatures below 26C, moderate to strong shear, and a more stable atmosphere. The global models indicate that the low will dissipate within a couple of days, and the NHC forecast follows suit. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 22.1N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 23.5N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 24.9N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 26.0N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 22

2020-10-14 10:36:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 140836 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 113.3W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 113.3W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 23.5N 114.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 24.9N 115.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.0N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 21

2020-10-14 04:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140236 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020 Norbert has increased in organization this evening, with a pair of microwave passes as well as infrared satellite imagery showing a tightly curved band of convection wrapping about halfway around the low-level center. In addition, a well-defined outflow pattern is surrounding the cyclone in the current low-shear environment. Based on these developmental trends, the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. There is only about a 12-18 h opportunity for Norbert to maintain its current strength or perhaps intensify a little more before it reaches a hostile environment just to its north. By 24 h, the cyclone is forecast to encounter strong southwesterly shear and a dry and stable atmospheric environment, while moving over cooler waters. Therefore, the cyclone should start weakening by 24 h and should degenerate into a remnant low devoid of deep convection by 48 h. The model guidance indicates the remnant low should dissipate very soon thereafter. The latest NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest consensus intensity guidance, and is only higher than the previous NHC forecast due to the increase in the initial intensity. Norbert has been moving northwestward at around 13 kt since this afternoon as the cyclone has been steered between a deep-layer ridge centered over northern Mexico and an upper-level low offshore of Baja California. As the upper low shifts westward over the next day or so, Norbert's forward speed should decrease. What remains of Norbert should then turn northward on Thursday within the low-level flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 21.0N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 22.4N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 24.2N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 25.5N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 26.5N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 20

2020-10-13 22:37:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 132037 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020 Low pressure associated with the remnants of Norbert has become well-organized today, with persistent convection near and north of the estimated low-level center. Partial ScatSat and ASCAT-B passes near of this system suggest the low-level circulation is closed, and 25-30 kt scatterometer winds are noted in the northeast quadrant of the low. Additionally, earlier surface observations from Socorro Island, Mexico and ship observations from the Nathaniel B Palmer research vessel reported northwesterly winds on the backside of the system. Together, all this information supports the conclusion that the remnants of Norbert have redeveloped into a tropical depression. The initial intensity for Norbert is set at 30 kt based on the recent ASCAT-B overpass and a T2.0 subjective Dvorak classification from SAB. Norbert is only forecast to be a short-lived depression given the increasingly hostile environmental conditions it is expected to face during the next 24-48 h. While the vertical wind shear is currently weak, it is forecast to quickly increase by Wednesday courtesy of a mid- to upper-level low pressure system centered offshore of the Baja California peninsula. The majority of the guidance shows little or no intensity change, and the official NHC intensity forecast calls for Norbert to remain a 30-kt depression during the next 24 h. This should be followed by weakening as Norbert transitions to a remnant low by 48 h due to 20+ kt of deep-layer shear and decreased oceanic heat content. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Thursday night. Norbert is currently moving to the northwest at 11 kt. This general motion will continue for the next 24 h as the depression moves between a deep-layer ridge centered over northern Mexico and the upper low offshore of Baja California. As the upper low shifts westward, Norbert's forward speed will slow as the depression is drawn more northward before dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 19.8N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 21.1N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 23.0N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 24.4N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 25.5N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 20

2020-10-13 22:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 13 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 132036 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 111.7W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 111.7W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 21.1N 112.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 23.0N 114.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 24.4N 115.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.5N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

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