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Tropical Storm Delta Forecast Discussion Number 23

2020-10-10 10:36:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 100835 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Delta Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Delta continues to track north-northeastward across Louisiana bringing tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains to portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas. Doppler radar images show that the storm is asymmetric, with most of the heavy rains occurring on the north side of the circulation. Based on surface observations, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. Continued weakening is forecast, and Delta should become a tropical depression later today, and dissipate entirely in a couple of days. The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at 14 kt. A bend to the northeast is expected to occur later today, and that motion should continue until the system opens into a trough in 48 to 60 hours. Even though Delta is forecast to dissipate over or near Kentucky, the moisture associated with its remnants will continue northeastward and move across the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. early next week. Key Messages: 1. Water levels will continue to subside today along the Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds will persist for a few more hours near the path of Deltas center. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding and minor river flooding across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today, and into the Southern Appalachians through Sunday. Minor to major river flooding will continue across portions of Louisiana and Mississippi though much of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 31.8N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 10/1800Z 33.2N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/0600Z 34.4N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1800Z 36.0N 86.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 38.2N 83.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Delta Forecast Advisory Number 23

2020-10-10 10:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 100835 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM CAMERON TO PORT FOURCHON...LOUISIANA...INCLUDING VERMILION BAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 91.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 91.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 92.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.2N 90.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.4N 88.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 36.0N 86.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 38.2N 83.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 91.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Remnants of Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 19

2020-10-10 10:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100835 TCDEP4 Remnants Of Norbert Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Recent satellite imagery shows multiple low-level cloud swirls in the vicinity of Norbert's last estimated center position. A 0350Z ASCAT-A pass depicts a broad cyclonic circulation with at least two centers, and the only 20 kt or higher winds are displaced well to the southeast and likely associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In fact, the most well-defined circulation in the scatterometer data appears to have originated from the ITCZ and not Norbert. Additionally, Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB indicate the system is too weak to classify or barely classifiable. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on Norbert as its remnants appear to have merged into a broader ITCZ circulation over the eastern Pacific Ocean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 13.8N 106.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS OF NORBERT 12H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky

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Remnants of Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 19

2020-10-10 10:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 100834 TCMEP4 REMNANTS OF NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.7W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.7W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 106.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF NORBERT PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 22

2020-10-10 04:41:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 100241 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Delta made landfall around 23Z on the southwest Louisiana coast, and has been weakening over land. Assuming a fairly rapid weakening since landfall, the estimated current intensity is around 65 kt. Delta will continue weakening, and should become a tropical storm overnight. The system is likely to be reduced to a tropical depression on Saturday. This is in reasonable agreement with the NOAA corrected consensus prediction, HCCA. Center position estimates from surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that the motion is north-northeastward, or 025/13 kt. Over the next couple of days, Delta should turn northeastward on the east side of a mid-level trough and move into the Tennessee Valley region. The official forecast shows dissipation in 72 hours, but the global models suggest that this could occur a little sooner. Nonetheless, the vorticity and moisture remnants of Delta are likely to move over the northeastern United States early next week. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is still occurring along portions of the Louisiana coast, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Cameron, Louisiana, eastward to the Mouth of the Pearl River. Water levels will slowly subside on Saturday as Delta moves farther inland. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds and gusts to hurricane force will continue to spread inland overnight across portions of Louisiana near the path of Deltas center. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana through Saturday. Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 30.6N 92.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/0000Z 33.7N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1200Z 35.1N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z 39.5N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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