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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-10-21 19:42:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 211742 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Special Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 200 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Epsilon is significantly stronger than was previously analyzed. A blend of the flight-level and surface wind data supports an intensity of 95 kt. The intensity forecast has been adjusted upward during the first 12-24 h to account for this new data. It is possible that Epsilon could strengthen a little more and become a major hurricane later today before conditions become less conducive tomorrow. No changes were made to the track forecast at this time. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning later today and continuing intermittently through late Thursday, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Bermuda. 2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1800Z 29.4N 59.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 29.6N 60.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 30.9N 60.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 32.3N 61.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 33.7N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 35.0N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 36.6N 60.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 42.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 49.5N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-10-21 19:39:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 211739 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1800 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 59.7W AT 21/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......380NE 80SE 50SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..750NE 390SE 510SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 59.7W AT 21/1800Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 58.7W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.6N 60.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...300NE 110SE 80SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.9N 60.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...240NE 160SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 32.3N 61.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 160SE 100SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.7N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 180SE 120SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.0N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 210SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 36.6N 60.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 240SE 180SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 42.0N 51.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 49.5N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 59.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-10-21 16:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 211447 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 59.1W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......380NE 80SE 50SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..750NE 390SE 530SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 59.1W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 58.7W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.6N 60.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...300NE 110SE 80SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.9N 60.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...240NE 160SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 32.3N 61.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 160SE 100SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.7N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 180SE 120SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.0N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 210SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 36.6N 60.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 240SE 180SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 42.0N 51.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 49.5N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 59.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-10-21 10:52:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 935 WTNT42 KNHC 210852 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 Epsilon has maintained an eye in infrared satellite images during the past few hours, although a 0522 UTC AMSR microwave image indicated that the eastern and southern eyewall were a little thin at the time. Still, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT, unanimously increased to T4.5/77 kt, and Epsilon's intensity is therefore set at 75 kt. By definition, Epsilon has rapidly intensified, its intensity increasing more than 30 kt during the past 24 hours. As expected, Epsilon has turned toward the west-northwest with an initial motion of 300/12 kt, in response to a mid-tropospheric ridge which has built to the north of the hurricane. This ridge is expected to cede control to another ridge positioning itself east of Epsilon during the next 24 hours, which should steer the cyclone back to the northwest and then north Thursday and Thursday night. Epsilon is then expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies this weekend, accelerating northeastward toward the north Atlantic by the end of the forecast period. The GFS and HWRF models are showing some deviation to the east and west, respectively, of the other tightly packed guidance during the expected recurvature to the east of Bermuda. However, given that that there is little spread among the other models, the NHC track prediction remains close to the simple and corrected multi-model consensus aids. Relatively low vertical shear could foster some additional strengthening today, but oceanic heat content values are expected to fall to zero in 12-24 hours, which is likely to temper how much intensification can occur. During the first few days, the NHC intensity forecast lies between the nearly steady-state HCCA and IVCN aids and the slightly higher SHIPS and LGEM models. This forecast allows for some modest strengthening but generally shows little change in strength for the next 3 days. Some gradual weakening is anticipated on days 4 and 5 as Epsilon merges with a cold front and becomes extratropical, but it is likely to still be a powerful cyclone as it moves toward the north Atlantic at the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island as a hurricane. 2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 28.9N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 29.5N 59.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 30.4N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 33.1N 61.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 34.3N 61.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 35.8N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 40.0N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 46.0N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-10-21 10:51:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 356 WTNT22 KNHC 210851 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 58.3W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......380NE 80SE 50SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..750NE 390SE 510SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 58.3W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 57.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.5N 59.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...310NE 100SE 70SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.4N 60.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 140SE 90SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 90SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.1N 61.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.3N 61.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 160SE 110SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.8N 61.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...230NE 180SE 140SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 40.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 46.0N 39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 58.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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