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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-10-15 04:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 15 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 150236 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC THU OCT 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 115.7W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 115.7W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 115.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.7N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-10-14 22:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 142033 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are clearly taking a toll on Norbert. Infrared cloud top temperatures have rapidly warmed as Norbert has lost most, if not all, of its deep convection. Water vapor imagery shows a tongue of dry air drawn into the cyclone's circulation by a mid-level low pressure system centered to the west of Norbert. If current trends continue, Norbert could degenerate into a remnant low tonight or early Thursday. The advisory intensity is lowered to 30 kt based on a 1750Z ASCAT-B overpass that showed 25-30 kt winds in the northern semicircle of Norbert. This is consistent with T2.0 subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB. Norbert has moved a bit faster than was previously forecast, and its initial motion is estimated at 330/15 kt. The track guidance consensus depicts a northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed through tonight as the depression moves between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the aforementioned mid-level low. A slow northward turn is expected on Thursday. The NHC track forecast was adjusted slightly to the right of the previous forecast based on 12Z global model trends. Norbert will continue weakening during the next day or so in an environment characterized by 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear, dry mid-level air, and low oceanic heat content. The official intensity forecast shows remnant low status at 24 h and dissipation at 36 h, which is consistent with the consensus of reliable global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 24.7N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 25.9N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 26.9N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-10-14 22:32:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 235 WTPZ24 KNHC 142032 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 114.9W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 114.9W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.9N 115.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.9N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-10-14 16:46:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 141446 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Recent satellite imagery suggests Norbert is beginning to feel the effects of deep-layer shear and drier mid-level air associated with a mid- to upper-level low pressure system centered to its west-northwest. While Norbert still shows signs of organization, the deepest convection is now displaced to the north of the estimated center position. The advisory intensity is held at 35 kt this morning based on objective and subjective current intensity Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS, SAB, and TAFB. It is likely that Norbert has peaked in terms of its intensity. Norbert's estimated initial motion is 325/13 kt. The cyclone is moving northwestward between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the aforementioned mid- to upper-level low. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 h, with a gradual decrease in forward speed as the upper low pulls away from Norbert. There is increasing spread noted in the model track guidance as the steering flow weakens between 24-48 h, but the general trend is for a slightly more northward motion during this time. Only minor adjustments were made to the official NHC track forecast, which remains close to the various consensus aids including TVCE and HCCA. Increasing deep-layer shear, drier mid-level air, and cooler sea-surface temperatures are expected to induce a weakening trend beginning later today, and Norbert will likely become a tropical depression this afternoon. The GFS simulated satellite imagery suggests Norbert will lose its deep convection within the next 24-36 h, and the official NHC forecast shows the system degenerating to a remnant low before dissipation at 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 23.1N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 24.4N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 25.6N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 26.6N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 23
2020-10-14 16:44:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 141444 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 1500 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 114.0W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 114.0W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 113.7W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.4N 115.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.6N 115.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.6N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 114.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
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