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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-10-20 04:39:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200239 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EPSILON. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 55.3W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......240NE 60SE 0SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 60SE 240SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 55.3W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.1N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...250NE 90SE 0SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.5N 56.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 100SE 40SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.3N 58.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 110SE 60SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.1N 59.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 100SE 80SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.4N 60.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.3N 61.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 32.9N 62.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 36.4N 60.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 55.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-10-19 22:51:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 192051 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 Earlier this afternoon, Epsilon had a hybrid-type structure in satellite imagery, with a partially exposed center and a broken convective band that wrapped around the northern and eastern sides of the storm. However, recent satellite imagery shows a small convective burst near the center that gives Epsilon a more tropical appearance. ASCAT-B/C passes from this morning indicate the system has a large and asymmetric wind field, with 34-kt winds extending over 200 nm away from the center in the northern semicircle. This is, in part, attributable to the environmental pressure gradient with a strong high pressure ridge centered east of the Canadian Maritimes. The initial intensity is raised to 40 kt with this advisory, supported by a T2.5 subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB and a 37-kt objective 14Z SATCON estimate. Warm sea-surface temperatures and moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear should allow for gradual strengthening over the next day or so. By 36-48 h, a period of weaker wind shear should allow Epsilon to continue strengthening while becoming better organized and eventually developing a more symmetric wind field. There is still increasing spread in the intensity guidance beyond 48 h, with a split between the stronger statistical-dynamical guidance and the weaker regional hurricane models. Given these mixed signals, little change was made to the intensity forecast with this advisory. The official NHC intensity forecast lies on the higher end of the guidance consensus, but remains lower than SHIPS/LGEM. The official forecast now calls for Epsilon to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Epsilon remains nearly stationary as it meanders over the central Atlantic under weak steering currents. The cyclone should begin moving slowly northward tonight, then turn northwestward with a faster forward speed through midweek as a mid- to upper-level ridge is expected to build to the north and northeast of Epsilon. The current NHC forecast track shows Epsilon making its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday. By this weekend, the cyclone should begin turning northward ahead of an upper-level trough expected to move off the northeastern U.S. coast. Most of the track guidance is tightly clustered for the next several days, except for the latest HWRF. The track guidance has shifted slightly to the right, and so the NHC track forecast has been adjusted similarly to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Key Message: 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the progress of Epsilon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 25.5N 55.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 25.9N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 27.0N 56.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 28.1N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 28.8N 59.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 29.8N 60.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 31.1N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 32.8N 62.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 35.5N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-10-19 22:46:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 19 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 192046 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 2100 UTC MON OCT 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 55.5W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......240NE 60SE 0SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 60SE 30SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 55.5W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 55.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.9N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...250NE 90SE 0SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.0N 56.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...270NE 100SE 40SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 28.1N 57.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 110SE 60SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.8N 59.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 100SE 80SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.8N 60.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.1N 61.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 32.8N 62.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 35.5N 62.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 55.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-10-19 16:56:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 191456 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 Although the center of the system has become exposed over the past few hours, it is very well defined. In addition, the convective banding over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation has continued to improve. Based on a Dvorak classification of T2.5 from TAFB, the system is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm. ASCAT-A has missed the circulation, but ASCAT-B caught the far eastern edge of the wind field and indicates winds of 30-35 kt in that area. The tropical storm is located within an environment of moderate southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear and over warm waters. These conditions should allow for gradual strengthening over the next day or so. By 48 hours, decreasing vertical wind shear could allow for more significant intensification, and there is increasing spread in the intensity guidance by that time. The statistical guidance is at the upper-end of the envelope while the regional hurricane models are lower. The NHC forecast is a bit on the conservative side for now, and lies just above the intensity consensus aids. Given the expected decrease in shear, some upward adjustment in the intensity forecast may be required in subsequent advisories. Epsilon is meandering over the central Atlantic as it is located within an area of weak steering currents near the base of a mid- to upper-level trough that extends southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic. A mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the western and central Atlantic to the north of the system by midweek, and this ridge should slide eastward later in the week. These changes in the synoptic pattern should cause Epsilon to begin moving west-northwestward to northwestward at a faster rate of speed by midweek. The models are again in fairly good agreement and the NHC track is near the center of the guidance envelope. Key Message: 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the progress of Epsilon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 25.6N 55.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 25.8N 55.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 26.4N 55.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 27.6N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 28.3N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 29.1N 59.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 30.2N 60.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 32.3N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 34.5N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-10-19 16:53:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 19 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 191452 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC MON OCT 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 55.3W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 60SE 0SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 55.3W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.8N 55.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.4N 55.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 40SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.6N 56.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 40SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.3N 58.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 90SE 60SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.1N 59.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 100SE 80SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.2N 60.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 120SE 90SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 32.3N 62.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 34.5N 63.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 55.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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