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Tropical Storm Delta Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-10-05 16:51:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 051451 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 78.6W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 78.6W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 78.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.1N 79.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.7N 81.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.8N 84.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.8N 86.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.6N 89.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.0N 90.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 28.8N 91.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 33.1N 88.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 78.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-10-05 16:51:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 051451 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF DZILAM TO CAMPECHE MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 87.6W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 205 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 210SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 87.6W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 87.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.1N 88.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.6N 89.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.9N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.2N 90.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.3N 89.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.0N 89.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 87.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 26
2020-10-05 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 051450 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 500 AM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 The remains of the deep convection associated with Marie continues to get further displaced from the exposed low-level center due strong upper-level westerly winds, with the gap now over 100 n mi between those two features. The various satellite intensity estimates suggest that the current intensity may only be 45 kt. However, due to fair number of 55-kt wind vectors on the ASCAT overpass early this morning, the intensity is conservatively being lowered to 50 kt for this advisory. Marie is expected to weaken over the next few days in a hostile environment of 30 plus kt of wind shear, over SSTs cooler that 25 degrees C, surrounded by a dry and stable airmass. With the convection now displaced so far from the center, and no regeneration of convection near the center anticipated, Marie is now forecast to become a remnant low by Tuesday night. This could happen even sooner if the current trend continues. Marie continues to move west-northwestward at about 8 kt around a mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the west is expected in a couple of days as the cyclone becomes a more shallow system. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various track consensus forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 21.1N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 21.5N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 22.1N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 22.7N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z 23.1N 137.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0000Z 23.3N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z 23.3N 138.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1200Z 22.9N 140.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 26
2020-10-05 16:50:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 051449 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 131.9W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 131.9W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 131.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.1N 134.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.7N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.1N 137.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.3N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.3N 138.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.9N 140.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 131.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Twenty-six Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-10-05 10:56:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 088 WTNT41 KNHC 050856 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Deep convection has been steadily improving in both vertical depth and structure, with the cloud pattern becoming more circular with upper-level outflow now having become established in all quadrants. However, there are still some indications in satellite imagery that the low-level and the mid-/upper-level circulations are not yet vertically aligned, with the low-level center still located just inside the northern edge of the convective cloud shield. For now, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt based on Dvorak satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB and also UW-CIMSS ADT. However, SATCON estimates suggest that the cyclone is close to tropical storm status. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 290/08 kt. Even after maintaining some continuity with the previous forecast, the initial position had to be adjusted a little farther to the south and west based on satellite animation, and the current position may have to be adjusted farther south on the next forecast cycle due to possible redevelopment of the center into the deep convective cloud mass. Otherwise, the previous forecast track reasoning remains essentially unchanged. The cyclone is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward along the southern side of a deep-layer ridge for the next few days. By day 4 and beyond, a broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop across northern Mexico and Texas, which is expected to create a break in the ridge and turn the cyclone northward toward the north-central Gulf coast. The steering flow pattern becomes a little complex on days 2-3 due to expected binary interaction with Tropical Storm Gamma or its remnants, which could result in a sharp westward jog, after which a sharp turn back toward the northwest could occur. However, the latest NHC model guidance is in fairly good agreement that the cyclone will make a sharp northward turn between 90W-92W longitude around 96 hours or so. Thereafter, acceleration toward the north-northeast or northeast ahead of the approaching trough and frontal system is anticipated. The new NHC forecast track is a little to the left of the previous track through 72 hours, mainly to account for the more westward initial position, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed model guidance envelope. The northeasterly deep-layer vertical wind shear that has been plaguing the cyclone is finally showing signs of abating. The GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS model guidance shows the shear decreasing to near zero in the 24-48 hour period, which allow for some robust intensification to occur, assuming that the inner-core wind field becomes better defined later today. By 96 hours and beyond, the SHIPS models are forecasting the shear to increase 20-30 kt from the southwest, which would be expected to induce rapid weakening. However, the SHIPS models appear to be creating too much shear over the cyclone's center by incorporating jetstream winds of about 60 kt across Texas, whereas the 200-mb model fields only show winds of 10-15 kt over the center by 96 hours. As a result, the new intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to reach its peak intensity in the 72-96 hour period, followed by weakening due to likely cold upwelling of shallow cool shelf waters offshore the southwest coast of Louisiana and Mississippi. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance, similar to the corrected-consensus model HCCA. Users are reminded that the average 4- and 5-day NHC track forecast errors are about 160 to 200 miles at those time periods, respectively. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late today, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. 4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for updates to the forecast during the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 17.0N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 17.4N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 18.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 20.5N 83.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 22.5N 85.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 24.4N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 25.9N 90.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 28.0N 91.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 32.4N 88.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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