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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 34
2020-09-20 22:54:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 202053 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO CANSO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO CANSO NOVA SCOTIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 63.4W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..510NE 330SE 360SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 63.4W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 63.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.1N 63.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 160SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.8N 62.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...280NE 200SE 200SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 36.9N 63.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 50 KT...190NE 140SE 120SW 180NW. 34 KT...400NE 300SE 300SW 350NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...160NE 110SE 120SW 140NW. 34 KT...340NE 280SE 270SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.7N 63.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...260NE 280SE 250SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 46.0N 61.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 240SE 160SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 54.5N 50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 63.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-20 22:50:03| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020
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Tropical Depression Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-20 22:33:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 202033 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Wilfred Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 Wilfred is not a healthy tropical cyclone as strong vertical shear from the combination of outflow from Hurricane Teddy as well as winds on the southern side of a nearby upper-level trough are impinging upon the system. While there is substantial deep convection, it is more linear rather than curved in appearance and it may be more a product of forcing from the upper-level trough rather than the tropical cyclone itself. Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB have reduced some at 18Z, though the intensity remains a perhaps generous 30 kt. The tropical cyclone continues to move west-northwest at a fast 17 kt clip. As the system slowly winds down, it will be increasingly steered by the low-level flow indicating a slower movement toward the west or west-northwest until dissipation. The new track forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory, except for the final 60 hr point that does show a turn toward the northwest based upon the TVCN and HCCA track consensus techniques. Strong shear and dry mid-level humidities should continue to cause a reduction in the deep convection and lead to the system becoming a remnant low in a day or two followed shortly thereafter by dissipation. Most statistical and dynamical intensity guidance is in agreement. A plausible alternate scenario is that the small circulation opens up into a trough and dissipation occurs sooner than indicated below. It is worth noting that the ECMWF model does suggest the possibility of reformation of the system farther north by day three. However, this scenario is discounted at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 15.9N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 16.3N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 16.5N 49.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 16.5N 50.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1800Z 16.8N 51.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0600Z 17.8N 52.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATED 72H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Depression Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-09-20 22:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 202032 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 45.8W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 45.8W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 45.1W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.3N 48.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.5N 49.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.5N 50.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.8N 51.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.8N 52.7W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 45.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-09-20 16:59:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 201459 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 Beta remains a sheared tropical cyclone whose internal structure and convective pattern remained unchanged from the previous advisory, and essentially unchanged over the past 24 hours. The cyclone is going through another bursting phase with the strongest convection displaced into the northeastern quadrant. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Beta this morning has found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 61 kt in some rather vigorous thunderstorms in the north of the center, along with believable SFMR surface winds of 45-47 kt in the northeastern quadrant where 45-kt winds were reported by ship KGSG at 0800 UTC. The aircraft also found that the central pressure was down a little bit to 996 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is being maintained at 50 kt. It should be noted that the wind field is quite asymmetric with the strongest winds located in the deep convection and farther to the northeast behind an old frontal boundary. Beta remains trapped in weak steering currents and the initial motion is still quite slow at 300/03 kt. Beta is forecast to remain embedded in weak steering currents for the next 48 h or so, caught between a mid-level ridge located over Florida and another ridge situated over the U.S. Southern Plains. Thereafter, the ridge over the Southern Plains if expected to break down while the ridge over Florida amplifies northward and westward across the southern U.S., resulting in a very gradual increase in forward speed toward the north by late Tuesday and then toward the northeast on Wednesday. Beta is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by early Wednesday and dissipate inland over the lower Mississippi by late Friday or Saturday. Due to the continued southwest to westerly shear expected to affect Beta, which will keep the convection confined to the northeastern and eastern quadrants, the official forecast track is located along the eastern or right side of the track guidance envelope, and is the right of all of the consensus aids, toward the middle-to-upper Texas coast. Beta is expected to remain under the influence of 15-20 kt of deep layer vertical wind shear, which is enough to keep the cyclone from strengthening much, if any, but not enough to weaken or dissipate the cyclone before it makes landfall. As a result, the intensity is forecast to remain steady at 50 kt until landfall, followed by slower-than-normal weakening for an inland tropical cyclone due to its expected proximity to the Gulf where onshore rainbands could brings higher squalls along the coast. By 72 h, Beta is forecast to weaken fairly quickly into a remnant low since the system will be much farther inland by that time. The intensity model guidance remain in decent agreement, so the new NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous advisory and is similar to the HCCA consensus model. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and river flooding is likely. Rainfall will then spread northward into the lower Mississippi River Valley by mid-week where flash, urban, and river flooding is possible. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical-storm-force winds are occurring along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning area in Louisiana. These winds will spread westward to the Texas coast later today and Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 27.2N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 27.6N 93.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 28.1N 95.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 28.6N 95.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 29.0N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 23/0000Z 29.6N 95.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1200Z 30.2N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/1200Z 32.1N 92.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 25/1200Z 34.4N 89.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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