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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 7

2020-09-20 04:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200234 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 Microwave data since the previous advisory indicates that the center of Wilfred is located near the southwestern edge of the deep convection. The displacement of the center from the convection is the result of moderate westerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity remains 35 kt, and is based on an ASCAT-B overpass from around 0000 UTC that revealed peak winds of 30-35 kt. Wilfred is headed toward an area of increasing westerly wind shear, and a drier mid-level environment. These negative factors should lead to weakening in 24 to 48 h, and the global models dissipate the cyclone within the next few days. The official forecast follows suit, but given the small size of the cyclone it could weaken and dissipate sooner than indicated below. The initial motion estimate is 295/14, a little faster than before. Wilfred is forecast to remain on a west-northwestward heading through Sunday, but should turn westward within the low-level flow by Sunday night or Monday. The latest NHC track forecast is once again similar to the previous advisory and near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 14.5N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 15.3N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 15.8N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 16.2N 47.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 16.4N 49.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-09-20 04:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 200232 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 40.5W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 40.5W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 39.9W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.3N 42.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 45.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.2N 47.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.4N 49.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 40.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 9

2020-09-19 23:00:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 192100 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Beta has a small area of convection over the low-level center, with a dry slot on the northeastern side separating that convection from a larger outer band. Satellite intensity estimates are generally in the 40-55 kt range and have changed little since the past advisory. In addition, a ship just north of the center just reported 47-kt winds and a pressure of 998.6 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 50 kt. Earlier scatterometer data showed a trough extending from near the center of Beta to just south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, which may be a result of the cyclone's circulation interacting with an old cold front over the northern Gulf. Beta has been nearly stationary since the last advisory, with the center perhaps making a small loop. The guidance is in good agreement that a slow westward to west-northwestward motion should start tonight as a mid-level ridge develops north of the cyclone. A slightly faster west-northwestward motion should then occur through 72 h, bringing the center of Beta near or over the Texas coast in about 60 h. After landfall, a mid-latitude trough moving through the central United States should cause Beta to recurve slowly to the northeast. Despite the current lack of movement, the latest track guidance is a little faster to bring the storm to the coast of Texas with the ECMWF forecasting landfall by 12Z Monday. The new forecast track is a little faster than the previous forecast, but is a little slower than the various consensus models. There remain a lot of uncertainties in the intensity forecast. First, the global models still suggest that the ongoing southwesterly shear may not subside much before landfall. Second, GOES-16 air mass imagery shows abundant upper-level dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico, including near the storm center. Third, surface observations show a drier low-level airmass in place over southeastern Texas, and some of this may be getting entrained into the storm. The intensity guidance has again trended downward, and several of the models now forecast Beta not to strengthen at all as it approaches Texas. Because the sea surface temperatures are warm and the shear is not prohibitively strong, the intensity forecast, while reduced from the earlier forecast, will show slow strengthening to a peak intensity of 60 kt before landfall. This forecast remains above the guidance, and additional downward adjustments may be needed tonight or on Sunday. While the chances that Beta will become a hurricane are decreasing, a Hurricane Warning could still be issued for portions of the Texas coast tonight depending on later intensity trends and forecasts. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta has the potential to produce a long duration rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. The potentially prolonged period of rainfall could cause flash, urban, and river flooding, especially in coastal areas where tide levels are above normal. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide from Sunday through Tuesday along portions of the Texas coast within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm force winds are expected to begin along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast by Sunday night within the tropical storm warning area, with hurricane-force winds possible along portions of the Texas coast late Monday and Monday night, where a hurricane watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 26.6N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 26.7N 93.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 27.1N 94.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 27.5N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 27.9N 96.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 28.3N 96.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 28.8N 96.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 23/1800Z 29.5N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 24/1800Z 31.0N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion beta storm

Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 9

2020-09-19 22:59:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 192059 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA INCLUDING SABINE LAKE AND LAKE CALCASIEU A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 92.4W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 40SE 40SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 92.4W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.7N 93.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.1N 94.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.5N 95.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 27.9N 96.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.3N 96.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.8N 96.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 29.5N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 31.0N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 92.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number beta storm advisory

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 30

2020-09-19 22:34:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 192034 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 60.2W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT.......220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 270SE 360SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 60.2W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 59.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 27.9N 61.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.1N 62.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.7N 62.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 33.6N 61.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...320NE 230SE 240SW 290NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.3N 61.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...170NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...350NE 330SE 270SW 320NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 41.9N 62.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. 34 KT...350NE 310SE 250SW 270NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 47.7N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 55.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 60.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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