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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 8

2020-09-20 10:33:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 200833 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 42.0W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 42.0W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 41.5W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.7N 44.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.2N 46.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.5N 48.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.7N 50.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 42.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 10

2020-09-20 04:59:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200259 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Beta's deep convection has been waning this evening. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that the central pressure rose several millibars since this morning, but the plane also still measured surface winds around 50 kt from the SFMR instrument. The strongest winds appear to be located near on old frontal boundary which extends north and east of Beta's center, and in fact sustained tropical-storm-force winds are just grazing the coast of south-central Louisiana. The aircraft fixes indicated that Beta drifted north-northeastward during the day. Right now, the cyclone is embedded within weak steering currents between two areas of high pressure centered near the Bahamas and west Texas/southern New Mexico. The western high pressure area is expected to slide eastward across the Southern Plains into the southeastern U.S. through Sunday night, which should force Beta to move slowly toward the west-northwest toward the Texas coast. The center is now expected to reach the coast between 48-60 hours, at which point it is likely to recurve around the mid-level high and move slowly northeastward near or inland of the upper Texas coast on days 3 and 4. Because of Beta's drift today, the new guidance envelope has shifted a bit northward. For this forecast cycle, the NHC official forecast split the difference between the previous interpolated forecast and the HFIP Corrected Consensus guidance. This keeps the forecast to the east of the ECMWF, HCCA, and TVCN multi-model consensus during Beta's slow recurvature. The air mass behind the old front appears to have won out. Beta's circulation is embedded in a dry environment of mid-level relative humidities around 50 percent, and the air mass could actually become more stable as Beta moves closer to the Texas coast. On top of that, the moderate southwesterly shear is not expected to diminish much at all. As a result, the intensity guidance has continued to trend downward, and the new official forecast now flatlines Beta's intensity at 50 kt until landfall soon after 48 hours. This forecast still lies near the top end of the guidance envelope, closest to the SHIPS model. After 48 hours, weakening is expected assuming Beta's center remains over land, and it is now expected to become a remnant low over Louisiana by day 5. While the chances that Beta will become a hurricane continue to decrease, the Hurricane Watch for portions of the coast of Texas are being maintained out of an abundance of caution given the uncertainty in the forecast. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta has the potential to expand a long duration rainfall event from the Louisiana coast westward into southeast Texas on Sunday and northward into the Mid-South by mid next week. The potentially prolonged period of rainfall could cause flash, urban, and river flooding, especially where tide levels are above normal. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide from Sunday through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm force winds are expected to begin along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast overnight within the tropical storm warning area in Louisiana and will spread westward to the Texas coast Sunday through Monday. Hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the Texas coast late Monday and Monday night, where a hurricane watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 26.8N 92.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 27.1N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 27.4N 94.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 27.9N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 28.4N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 28.9N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/0000Z 29.3N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/0000Z 30.2N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 25/0000Z 31.4N 92.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-09-20 04:55:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200255 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST OF HIGH ISLAND...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE...LOUISIANA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE...LOUISIANA... INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE...AND LAKE CALCASIEU A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY...TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 92.2W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......160NE 40SE 40SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 92.2W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 92.2W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 27.1N 93.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 50SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.4N 94.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 50SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.9N 95.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.4N 96.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.9N 96.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.3N 96.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 30.2N 94.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 31.4N 92.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 92.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 31

2020-09-20 04:54:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 200254 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 Some convective cells have been developing within Teddy's large outer eye, and it is possible that this convection is forming an inner eyewall. In any event, observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds have decreased slightly, to near 100 kt. The hurricane is expected to remain in a low shear environment until tomorrow evening, and to more or less maintain its intensity for 12-24 hours. Thereafter, increasing shear associated with an upper-level trough to the west should cause weakening. Although the shear is predicted by the global models to become fairly strong after 48 hours, the system has a a very large and intense circulation so only slow weakening is expected. By 72 hours, Teddy should merge with a frontal zone to the east of New England and become a strong extratropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. The system's wind field will likely become even larger as the wind field of Teddy interacts within a high pressure system behind a cold front during the next few days. This could prolong the period of strong winds over Bermuda into Monday night. Teddy continues on a general northwestward track or about 315/11 kt. The hurricane should move on the western side of a subtropical high pressure area for the next day or so, and then begin to accelerate northward ahead of a strong mid-tropospheric trough that develops into a cutoff low off the northeast U.S. coast in a couple of days. The interaction of Teddy with this low will likely result in a slight leftward bend of the track around days 2-3. In 4-5 days, post-tropical Teddy is likely to turn north-northeastward to northeastward in the flow on the east side of a broad 500 mb trough. The official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions. The extent of 12-foot or higher seas associated with Teddy continues to increase. See the Key Message below regarding swells caused by the hurricane. Key Messages: 1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday, tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning Sunday evening. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 27.3N 61.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 28.3N 62.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 29.6N 63.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 31.6N 62.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 35.7N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 39.7N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 42.5N 62.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/0000Z 49.5N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 25/0000Z 57.0N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 31

2020-09-20 04:52:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 417 WTNT25 KNHC 200252 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 61.2W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT.......220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 300SE 390SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 61.2W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 60.8W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.3N 62.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.6N 63.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.6N 62.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...260NE 220SE 180SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 35.7N 61.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...320NE 230SE 240SW 290NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.7N 62.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...170NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...350NE 330SE 270SW 320NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 42.5N 62.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. 34 KT...350NE 310SE 250SW 270NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 49.5N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 57.0N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 61.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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